Summary: Climate Impact Company updates the month 1-3 outlooks for the U.S. and adds September. The forecast is projected using a constructed analog. Minor adjustments are made to the forecast due to a stronger La Nina climate. Highlights include a sprawling hotter than normal summer for the U.S. except for the coastal Northwest States (Fig. 1). Hottest temperatures are across northern Texas/southern Great Plains drought area. Hot and dry weather organize in the Central U.S. during mid-summer as the drought affecting the western half of the U.S. expands. Most Gulf and East Coast locations are susceptible to heavy rain related to tropical cyclone risk (Fig. 2).
Fig. 1-2: The Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly forecast for summer 2022.
High impact climate summary: The primary concerns heading into summertime are drought (and attendant anomalous heat) and coastal tropical cyclone risk. The JUN/JUL 2022 outlook (Fig. 3) emphasizes dryness (and anomalous heat) across Texas and into the Southwest States. Drought in this region, particularly Texas strengthens. The Midwest States are wet in June and flip very dry mid-summer. Elsewhere, anomalous heat risk is evident in the Mid-Atlantic States for both months particularly June while California heat is most intense in July. The Carolinas are susceptible to flood risk possibly due to early season tropical cyclones. The outlook for AUG/SEP 2022 (Fig. 4) indicates widespread hot weather risk in the Central U.S. while the Midwest dry pattern lingers. Drought spreads across the Great Plains into the Midwest region. Tropical cyclone risk is identified for the northeast Gulf in August and Texas/Louisiana coast in September. The northern Mid-Atlantic States are at risk of flooding rainfall.
Fig. 3-4: The Climate Impact Company high impact climate forecast for JUN/JUL and AUG/SEP 2022.