12/30/2022, 12:00 pm EST
The increasing storm track intensity in the U.S. bring brief cold pulses but generally not in high energy demand areas for home heating. Nationally, heating demand increases to near normal after early January.
12/30/2022, 11:48 am EST
During the next 2 weeks prohibitive precipitation amount is forecast across the West U.S. The Canadian Ensemble indicates large areas of >12 in. of liquid precipitation centered on northwest California and the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Conservative estimates range to >20- in. of water in favored areas of these two locations.
12/30/2022, 8:28 am EST
Latest 1-2 week outlooks indicate a dry and hot pattern developing across Argentina to far Southeast Brazil. In Northeast Argentina, a large area of deep layer soil moisture deficits is present. The combination of the forecast and deep layer soil moisture condition will lead to an Argentina flash drought by the middle third of January.
12/29/2022, 9:24 am EST
Causal of the recent polar vortex event into the U.S. was the combination of persistent high latitude blocking high pressure related to the warming influence of the upper atmospher caused by farther north open water during winter, warm water zones of the Northeast Pacific and western North Atlantic basins whose attendant upper air patterns force susceptibility of polar vortex events in North America and cross-polar flow of frigid Siberian arctic air making this polar vortex event even stronger.
12/29/2022, 4:56 am EST
Argentina drought is worsening as dry surface and deep layer soil moisture anomalies strengthen. The latest 15-day outlook emphasizes additional dry climate in this zone. Meanwhile, a strong wet monsoon emerges across Northern Australia.
12/27/2022, 5:38 am EST
An MJO-inspired pulse of wet monsoon weather shifts into Northern Australia to start the New Year. However, the MJO may shift eastward later in January with a goal of eroding La Nina and shifting the Australia climate drier as indicated by ECMWF in 3-4 weeks.
12/27/2022, 5:30 am EST
The GFS 15-day upper air pattern forecast projects a super-amplified upper-level high-pressure ridge. Consequently, an unusually warm climate sets-up entering the New Year across Europe likely producing some record warmth!
12/23/2022, 1:27 pm EST
Stratospheric cooling over Alaska motivated a tropospheric "ridge bridge" across Alaska to the polar region motivating cross-polar flow of arctic air into an emerging polar vortex over the Midwest U.S. resulting in a frigid arctic outbreak for the U.S.
12/22/2022, 8:23 am EST
An unusually intense storm system with central pressure plummeting to 970 MB just northeast of the Great Lakes by tomorrow evening while a 1055 MB arctic high enters Montana today propels a large list of hazardous weather which will include life threatening intensity beginning today and lasting into early weekend just ahead of Christmas.
12/21/2022, 3:25 pm EST
In one of today's Climate Impact Company market reports, noted was the vast sharp warming of the ocean water off the West Coast of South America. Indicated is a potential weakening of the Humboldt Current. If so, this is one diagnostic suggesting La Nina's demise is ahead.
12/20/2022, 5:57 am EST
A cold blast of arctic air will surge into the Great Plains midweek rapidly charging to the Gulf of Mexico and moderating into the East. A primary concern is the extremely tight pressure gradient between a 1060 MB arctic high over Montana Thursday and a 980 MB low over Michigan Friday which will cause wind gusts from 55 to 70 mph (or more) in the Upper Midwest, Midwest, Great Lakes region and into the Northeast Thursday into Friday. The immediate Atlantic Seaboard is also at risk for very high wind on Friday.
12/20/2022, 4:38 am EST
As expected, the next transient tropical Pacific Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) episode is evolving. A large area of anomalous convection across Indonesia extending to Northern Australia is expected over the next week (or more) producing excessive rainfall in these regions. The convective rains in this region are characteristic of MJO phase_4/phase_5 which is expected to strengthen over the next 7-10 days.