News
12/13/2022, 7:57 am EST

Favoring Dryness in Argentina Where Drought Strengthens

Argentina drought continues but a super drought or flash drought is less likely given the current upper air pattern forecast. Later this summer, the upper trough is forecast to shift east and northeast allowing some drying into Southeast Brazil.
12/12/2022, 4:48 am EST

Comparing the DEC-2013 and DEC-2022 Arctic Outbreaks

The larger aerial coverage of stronger cold for the 2022 arctic outbreak event is also expected to last longer than the 2013 episode only if the projected more expansive snow cover by the GFS ENS verifies.
12/11/2022, 9:13 am EST

Feared “Ridge Bridge” Pattern Ahead for North America…Triggers Siberian Express Cold Outbreak!

The character of the -AO regime is about to change. The high-latitude high-pressure ridge shifts from Greenland to Alaska and gradually an Alaska “ridge bridge” toward Siberia develops. The result is increasing risk of a cross-polar arctic air surge from Siberia into North America in 7-10 days. The pattern described is often referred to as the “Siberian Express” and the Alaska “ridge bridge” phrase became popular after the North America “polar vortex” winter of 2013-14.
12/09/2022, 4:09 pm EST

U.S. November/Autumn 2022 Climate Report

November 2022 and SEP/OCT/NOV 2022 Climate Report Discussion: The U.S. November 2022 thermal climate produced two distinct patterns: Cold West and warm East (Fig: 1). The West U.S. finished the month in the top 10 coldest (for November) in the 128-year historical record. Idaho finished 4th coldest all-time. In the East, New England, North Carolina and Florida each finished in the top 10 all-time warmest for November. Nationally, the U.S. ranked 44 of 128 years where 1 is coldest and 128 is warmest. The November 2022 precipitation climate ranked moderately wet. The South and East ranked wetter than normal but not excessive (Fig. 2). Nebraska and the Ohio Valley were marginally wet. Meteorological autumn 2022 was (nationally) warmer than normal ranking 24th warmest in the 128-year historical record. The West and North U.S. ranked warmer than normal including Washington and New England which ranked in the top-10 warmest autumn seasons on record (Fig. 3). Maine observed their 4th warmest autumn season on record. Uniquely, only Tennessee and Alabama observed a cooler than normal autumn season. The autumn season was dry, ranking 23rd all-time in the 128-year historical record where 1 is driest. Motivating the dry climate pattern for meteorological autumn were top-10 driest all-time rankings for Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, Indiana, and Kentucky (Fig. 4). The West Coast was moderately drier than normal during autumn. The wet regions were New England and Florida. Fig: 1: NOAA state rankings for temperature during November 2022. Fig: 2: NOAA state rankings for precipitation during November 2022. Fig: 3: NOAA state rankings for temperature during SEP/OCT/NOV 2022. Fig: 4: NOAA state rankings for precipitation during SEP/OCT/NOV 2022.