Charts of the day: Conditions are set for flash drought in Argentina.
Discussion: Latest 1-2 week outlooks indicate a dry and hot pattern developing across Argentina to far Southeast Brazil. In Northeast Argentina, a large area of deep layer soil moisture deficits is present. The combination of the forecast and deep layer soil moisture condition will lead to an Argentina flash drought by the middle third of January.
Week-2 Valid January 9-15, 2023, 2022: Argentina heat is a problem…Flash drought emerges.
Discussion: Worse case scenario develops in Argentina. The outlook is hot across the drought zone and rainfall, if any is minimal. Combined with deep layer soil moisture deficit, conditions are ripe for flash drought.
Week-3 Valid January 16-22, 2023: Argentina heat keeps drought accelerating despite scattered thundershowers.
Discussion: Thundershowers are expected in parts of Argentina, but anomalous heat sustains drought acceleration.
Week-4 Valid January 23-29, 2023: Any thundershowers too late to help Argentina.
Discussion: Dryness is emerging in Eastern Brazil, a trend that is expected to continue mid-to-late summer.