05/24/2022, 8:34 am EDT

Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index Vs. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Since the middle 1990’s, the “activeness” of the North Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity has generally been above too much above normal due to the long-term warm cycle of AMO and the lack of El Nino presence (only 24% of the months from 1995-2022).
05/23/2022, 12:32 pm EDT

Oceanic La Nina Moderately Strong; La Nina Atmosphere Very Strong

The Nino23 SSTA regions remain consistent in the moderate intensity of La Nina range for mid-May. However, mostly very negative daily southern oscillation index implies the atmosphere is locked-in on strong La Nina presence. Models are indicating some weakening of La Nina for just-after mid-year but no signs of that weakening yet.
05/22/2022, 11:15 am EDT

East-central/East China Continue Drier

East-central/East China wheat-growing areas have turned much drier in recent weeks. Last week no rainfall was reported in this region and 15-day outlooks maintain the dry concern.
05/22/2022, 11:07 am EDT

May 2022 North Atlantic TC Seasonal Activity Forecast Update: La Nina Continues – Seasonal Activity Forecast Increases

The Climate Impact Company 2022 North Atlantic seasonal activity forecast has increased slightly since the initial projection one month ago. The number of tropical storms, hurricanes and intense hurricanes each increases by a count of 1 to 20 storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 intense hurricanes. The ACE index increases from 135 to 149. The increase in activity is due to a more confident La Nina climate forecast.