05/18/2022, 3:59 pm EDT

GFS/ECM Trending MUCH Wetter in Texas in 6-10-Day Forecast

The GFS produced a consistent tropical cyclone risk in their medium/extended-range forecasts since late last week. However, the GFS has dropped that idea late last night and today. Instead, GFS produces an excessive rainfall episode as an upper trough entrains western Gulf of Mexico moisture next week producing >10 in. of rain in some spots based on today’s 12Z GFS.
05/17/2022, 9:00 am EDT

Late May Tropical Cyclone Risk in Gulf of Mexico

GFS is consistent forecasting evolution of a significant tropical cyclone in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula later next week. This potential system is characterized as “significant” due to the possibility this system could become a hurricane in the open Gulf moving northward in late May.
05/16/2022, 6:42 am EDT

Evaporative Drought Demand Index Foreshadowing Summer 2022 Drought Areas

The current U.S. Evaporative Drought Demand Index (EDDI) clearly identifies much of the southern half of the U.S. as rainfall starved with attendant worsening dry to drought soil moisture. The driest EDDI is located over the Desert Southwest, south-central Nebraska, and parts of eastern Kentucky, the eastern Carolinas and Florida. The northern U.S. has benefited from cool temperatures, snowmelt and wet periods to cause a EDDI wet surplus.
05/16/2022, 6:39 am EDT

Multivariate ENSO Index Update: La Nina 2020-22 strength peaks again.

Based on the multivariate ENSO index (MEI), La Nina 2020-22 has reached a 3rd peak intensity at -1.5 for MAR/AUG 2022. Previous peak MEI were observed in June and October of 2021.