05/27/2022, 9:45 am EDT

Mid-Atlantic Squall Line Features Tornado Risk

A TORNADO WATCH is in effect for the Mid-Atlantic States to 2PM EDT. A new watch for this afternoon extending across the northern Mid-Atlantic States is likely! The HRRR model identifies the axis of the squall line across west-central Virginia to far northeast South Carolina at 10AM. The squall line produces a tornado risk, wind gusts to 6-65 mph, heavy rain and moderate lightning frequencies. By 1PM EDT, the squall line reaches the Baltimore/Washington to Richmond stretch.
05/26/2022, 10:04 am EDT

The Amundsen Sea Semi-Permanent Low-Pressure Trough

Beginning in 2020, a large area of low-pressure formed in the Amundsen Sea off the Antarctic Coast well southwest of South America. The upper trough has intensified and persisted through 2022 so far. There is correlation between the presence of this upper trough and winter cold risk in South America.
05/24/2022, 8:34 am EDT

Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index Vs. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Since the middle 1990’s, the “activeness” of the North Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity has generally been above too much above normal due to the long-term warm cycle of AMO and the lack of El Nino presence (only 24% of the months from 1995-2022).
05/23/2022, 12:32 pm EDT

Oceanic La Nina Moderately Strong; La Nina Atmosphere Very Strong

The Nino23 SSTA regions remain consistent in the moderate intensity of La Nina range for mid-May. However, mostly very negative daily southern oscillation index implies the atmosphere is locked-in on strong La Nina presence. Models are indicating some weakening of La Nina for just-after mid-year but no signs of that weakening yet.