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News
05/16/2022, 6:39 am EDT
Based on the multivariate ENSO index (MEI), La Nina 2020-22 has reached a 3rd peak intensity at -1.5 for MAR/AUG 2022. Previous peak MEI were observed in June and October of 2021.
05/13/2022, 11:49 am EDT
The last major summer drought in the U.S. was observed in 2012 when the Great Plains were hit hard! The soil moisture conditions during May 2012 were quite dry but not as dry as May 2022. Given a 3rd consecutive La Nina summer the U.S. is likely to encounter a historic drought.
05/12/2022, 2:42 pm EDT
Historically, ENSO phase entering a 3rd consecutive summer strongly supports widespread hostile drought for the U.S. biased toward the Great Plains historically but likely tilted slightly westward this summer season due to the already strong long-term drought across the western states.
05/12/2022, 2:37 pm EDT
The early season high fire risk is well-established over New Mexico. Also of concern is northern California and western Texas plus the far northwest Great Plains. During summer, the high fire risk in northern California spreads northward. High fire risk also expands across the Great Plains during summertime.