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05/20/2022, 2:29 pm EDT

AG Market Global Weather/Climate ALERT PPTX Presentation

05/19/2022, 11:47 am EDT

North America Prevailing Upper Air Forecast for Summer, Autumn and Next Winter

Projected by using a SSTA-based constructed analog, the prevailing upper air pattern across North America for meteorological summer and autumn 2022 plus winter 2022-23.
05/19/2022, 11:41 am EDT

North America Season 1-3 Ahead Climate Outlook: A hot U.S. summer and warm autumn. Western Great Plains summer drought could shift eastward late warm season.

Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company season 1-3 ahead forecast valid for summer and autumn 2022 plus winter 2022-23 is updated. The outlook is generated using a SSTA-based constructed analog. Highlights reveal a hot summer ahead for most of the U.S. with autumn staying warmer than normal. Next winter brings a Canadian polar vortex pattern that has limited influence on most of the (mild) U.S. winter outlook. Summer 2022 drought is forecast for the west/south Great plains with possible northward trend during late warm season. Long-term drought in the West continues. Precipitation forecasts implicate Louisiana and Texas for tropical cyclones. Climate discussion: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) climate forecasts are a SSTA-based projection. The forecast process assimilates past similar SSTA conditions to project the most likely climate for the next 1-3 seasons. SSTA patterns are generally well-correlated to semi-permanent high and low-pressure systems and given the reluctance of SSTA patterns to change have predictive skill which is reliable out to several months and depending on the (SSTA) regime several seasons. Traditional SSTA patterns used to correlate with and predict global climate patterns for North America are El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO). Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO). Climate Impact Company has added several other new reginal SSTA patterns to the climate forecast process given the increasing role of mid-latitude SSTA regimes on climate. They are the “warm blob” in the Northeast Pacific basin and the North Atlantic Warm Hole (NAWH) south of Greenland. The current global SSTA analysis reveals a resurgent La Nina well-correlated with a re-strengthening -PDO (Fig. 1). The IOD pattern is neutral but trending toward the negative phase. In the North Atlantic, the AMO pattern has shifted to neutral phase. The tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index is also negative. The climate signals listed are the traditional SSTA predictors used to generate climate forecasts. Right now, the greatest (SSTA) influence on U.S. climate is the La Nina/-PDO combination, present since 2020 and a leading catalyst to drought which is covering much of the western and southern U.S. as summer 2022 approaches. Fig. 1: The weekly global SSTA provided by NCDC/PSD with annotations of regions of influence on North America climate. However, during the past 10 years especially (but not exclusively) during the warm season, an area of very warm SSTA in the Northeast Pacific Basin known as the “warm blob” has generated semi-permanent high-pressure aloft in many cases so strong that shaping the entire mid-latitude northern hemisphere climate pattern can occur. At times, a large pool of anomalous cool SSTA south of Greenland (during summer) contributes to the upper air pattern generated by the “warm blob”. The cool SSTA pool south of Greenland is named the North Atlantic Warm Hole (NAWH) due to the persistent surrounding warm SSTA of the North Atlantic the past two decades. The 2013-2021 warm season upper air climatology identifies this pattern (Fig. 2). The “warm blob” and NAWH patterns have a large influence on Climate Impact Company climate forecasts. Fig. 2: The 2013-2021 MAY-SEP prevailing upper air pattern across the northern hemisphere identifying the “warm blob” upper ridge and NAWH upper trough as catalysts to the remaining features which includes a reliable drought-causing high-pressure area in Eastern Europe and low-pressure/increased TC activity in the North Atlantic. The summer/autumn 2022 climate forecasts are reliant on the global SSTA projection by the International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME). The winter outlook is initially based solely on the ENSO/PDO/AMO projection. In July, IMME projects a weaker La Nina pattern while a strong -IOD regime develops (Fig. 3). In the North Atlantic, waters are warming but less so than the decadal climatology. The “warm blob” broadens/strengthens in the mid-latitude Pacific while NAWH presence is less bold. The -PDO pattern lingers. The “warm blob”/NAWH 2013-2021 climatology coupled with La Nina/-IOD influence is the catalyst for the summer 2022 climate forecast. By next October, the IMME indicates La Nina lingers likely due to the still-strong -IOD pattern which inspires stronger-than-normal central equatorial Pacific trade winds that sustain La Nina (Fig. 4). The mid-latitude northern hemisphere oceans stay warmer than normal – a warm autumn climate bias. Also note the warm SSTA in the polar region – another warm autumn climate bias. A low confidence projection for next winter is lingering weak La Nina and -PDO while +AMO also shifts back to neutral. Fig. 3: The IMME model global SSTA forecast for July 2022 with annotations of reginal SSTA influencing North America climate.   Fig. 4: The IMME model global SSTA forecast for October 2022 with annotations of reginal SSTA influencing North America climate.   Also having an influence on the warm season outlook is the prevailing soil moisture pattern (and trend). As of mid-May, the U.S. soil moisture pattern reveals historic drought across California, the Southwest and Interior West U.S. plus the central Great plains to Texas (Fig. 5). Dryness prevails in the Carolinas to Florida. Wet soils dominate an area that was in drought last year across the northern Great plains/Upper Midwest States. The seasonal U.S. soil moisture trend (Fig. 6) is drier in Texas, wetter in the Mid-south and North-central States and “sneaky” drier across the Tennessee Valley (and vicinity). The simple but likely most reliable NCEP CAS (model) soil moisture anomaly projection for mid-summer yields a California to central Great Plains to Texas drought (Fig. 7) shifting northward to the Midwest States by late warm season (Fig. 8). A wetter climate is projected to suppress East U.S. drought risk. Areas that are dry add a hot bias to the climate forecast. Fig. 5-6: Current soil moisture ranking anomalies across the U.S. and the seasonal change. Fig. 7-8: The NCEP CAS soil moisture anomaly forecast for July and September. Season 1-3 ahead prevailing upper air pattern: The summer 2022 upper air pattern across North America projects a high-pressure ridge promoting hot and dry climate across the West to North-central U.S. (Fig. 9). The ridge is located farther south during early summer and pushed northward by the summertime (wet) monsoon regime. The wet summertime monsoon regime is related to low-pressure in the eastern Caribbean Sea where tropical cyclone generation is likely above normal. As previously indicated in the Climate Impact Company North Atlantic Hurricane Outlook, the best environment for tropical cyclones to flourish during the 2022 season is once systems have departed the deep tropics and approach or enter the subtropics. High-pressure across Nova Scotia indicates presence a tropical cyclone steering currents toward the U.S. East Coast for later in summer. The autumn upper air projection shifts the upper ridge pattern to the Central U.S. where late warm season drought is likely (Fig. 10). Low pressure is forecast on the U.S. East Coast suggesting presence of late season tropical cyclones. Next winter the polar vortex returns and anchors over Central/East Canada causing a cold winter risk there with occasional cold outbreaks into the U.S. (Fig. 11). Fig. 9-11: Based on the Climate Impact Company Constructed Analog, the projected prevailing upper air pattern across North America for summer and autumn of 2022 plus winter 2022-23. JUN/JUL/AUG 2022: Meteorological summer 2022 is warmer than normal for nearly the entire U.S. and Southern Canada. The hottest anomalies are across the Interior Northwest while the Great Plains heat is adjusted slightly less intense. The Northeast Corridor hot summer forecast remains intact, strongest in new England. The precipitation outlook is not as dry as previously indicated across the central and eastern Great Plains. The outlook is adjusted wetter in the Missouri and Ohio Valley(s). The Interior Northeast is adjusted wetter while the previous very wet Gulf of Mexico forecast is less aggressive possibly easing the land-falling tropical cyclone risk slightly. The dry pattern is strongest in the western Great Plains, Continental Divide States and Interior Northwest. Fig. 12-13: The Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly climate forecast for JUN/JUL/AUG 2022.  SEP/OCT/NOV 2022: A somewhat warmer than normal climate pattern remains in the forecast for meteorological autumn 2022. The forecast is similar to the previous outlook. Warmest anomalies are across the Northern U.S. and Southern Canada. The precipitation outlook favors wet climate in the Northeast and western Gulf of Mexico plus the coastal Northwest States while the Central U.S. is not as dry as previously indicated. Fig. 14-15: The Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly climate forecast for SEP/OCT/NOV 2022.  Preliminary DEC/JAN/FEB 2022-23: The meteorological winter 2022-23 outlook indicates a cold polar vortex pattern across Canada with occasional outbreaks into the U.S. In the absence of any cold air from Canada, a (very) mild pattern prevails particularly in the Southwest and East. The storm track is most evident in the Mid-south/East-central States with mostly (heavy) snow on the northern portion from the Great Lakes region to Ontario plus the Canadian Maritimes. Dryness will prevail next winter season across California as long-term drought continues. Fig. 16-17: The preliminary Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly climate forecast for DEC/JAN/FEB 2022-23.
05/19/2022, 11:36 am EDT

North America Season 1-3 Ahead Climate Outlook: A hot U.S. summer and warm autumn. Western Great Plains summer drought could shift eastward late warm season.

Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company season 1-3 ahead forecast valid for summer and autumn 2022 plus winter 2022-23 is updated. The outlook is generated using a SSTA-based constructed analog. Highlights reveal a hot summer ahead for most of the U.S. with autumn staying warmer than normal. Next winter brings a Canadian polar vortex pattern that has limited influence on most of the (mild) U.S. winter outlook. Summer 2022 drought is forecast for the west/south Great plains with possible northward trend during late warm season. Long-term drought in the West continues. Precipitation forecasts implicate Louisiana and Texas for tropical cyclones. Climate discussion: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) climate forecasts are a SSTA-based projection. The forecast process assimilates past similar SSTA conditions to project the most likely climate for the next 1-3 seasons. SSTA patterns are generally well-correlated to semi-permanent high and low-pressure systems and given the reluctance of SSTA patterns to change have predictive skill which is reliable out to several months and depending on the (SSTA) regime several seasons. Traditional SSTA patterns used to correlate with and predict global climate patterns for North America are El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO). Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO). Climate Impact Company has added several other new reginal SSTA patterns to the climate forecast process given the increasing role of mid-latitude SSTA regimes on climate. They are the “warm blob” in the Northeast Pacific basin and the North Atlantic Warm Hole (NAWH) south of Greenland. The current global SSTA analysis reveals a resurgent La Nina well-correlated with a re-strengthening -PDO (Fig. 1). The IOD pattern is neutral but trending toward the negative phase. In the North Atlantic, the AMO pattern has shifted to neutral phase. The tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index is also negative. The climate signals listed are the traditional SSTA predictors used to generate climate forecasts. Right now, the greatest (SSTA) influence on U.S. climate is the La Nina/-PDO combination, present since 2020 and a leading catalyst to drought which is covering much of the western and southern U.S. as summer 2022 approaches. Fig. 1: The weekly global SSTA provided by NCDC/PSD with annotations of regions of influence on North America climate. However, during the past 10 years especially (but not exclusively) during the warm season, an area of very warm SSTA in the Northeast Pacific Basin known as the “warm blob” has generated semi-permanent high-pressure aloft in many cases so strong that shaping the entire mid-latitude northern hemisphere climate pattern can occur. At times, a large pool of anomalous cool SSTA south of Greenland (during summer) contributes to the upper air pattern generated by the “warm blob”. The cool SSTA pool south of Greenland is named the North Atlantic Warm Hole (NAWH) due to the persistent surrounding warm SSTA of the North Atlantic the past two decades. The 2013-2021 warm season upper air climatology identifies this pattern (Fig. 2). The “warm blob” and NAWH patterns have a large influence on Climate Impact Company climate forecasts. Fig. 2: The 2013-2021 MAY-SEP prevailing upper air pattern across the northern hemisphere identifying the “warm blob” upper ridge and NAWH upper trough as catalysts to the remaining features which includes a reliable drought-causing high-pressure area in Eastern Europe and low-pressure/increased TC activity in the North Atlantic. The summer/autumn 2022 climate forecasts are reliant on the global SSTA projection by the International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME). The winter outlook is initially based solely on the ENSO/PDO/AMO projection. In July, IMME projects a weaker La Nina pattern while a strong -IOD regime develops (Fig. 3). In the North Atlantic, waters are warming but less so than the decadal climatology. The “warm blob” broadens/strengthens in the mid-latitude Pacific while NAWH presence is less bold. The -PDO pattern lingers. The “warm blob”/NAWH 2013-2021 climatology coupled with La Nina/-IOD influence is the catalyst for the summer 2022 climate forecast. By next October, the IMME indicates La Nina lingers likely due to the still-strong -IOD pattern which inspires stronger-than-normal central equatorial Pacific trade winds that sustain La Nina (Fig. 4). The mid-latitude northern hemisphere oceans stay warmer than normal – a warm autumn climate bias. Also note the warm SSTA in the polar region – another warm autumn climate bias. A low confidence projection for next winter is lingering weak La Nina and -PDO while +AMO also shifts back to neutral. Fig. 3: The IMME model global SSTA forecast for July 2022 with annotations of reginal SSTA influencing North America climate.   Fig. 4: The IMME model global SSTA forecast for October 2022 with annotations of reginal SSTA influencing North America climate.   Also having an influence on the warm season outlook is the prevailing soil moisture pattern (and trend). As of mid-May, the U.S. soil moisture pattern reveals historic drought across California, the Southwest and Interior West U.S. plus the central Great plains to Texas (Fig. 5). Dryness prevails in the Carolinas to Florida. Wet soils dominate an area that was in drought last year across the northern Great plains/Upper Midwest States. The seasonal U.S. soil moisture trend (Fig. 6) is drier in Texas, wetter in the Mid-south and North-central States and “sneaky” drier across the Tennessee Valley (and vicinity). The simple but likely most reliable NCEP CAS (model) soil moisture anomaly projection for mid-summer yields a California to central Great Plains to Texas drought (Fig. 7) shifting northward to the Midwest States by late warm season (Fig. 8). A wetter climate is projected to suppress East U.S. drought risk. Areas that are dry add a hot bias to the climate forecast. Fig. 5-6: Current soil moisture ranking anomalies across the U.S. and the seasonal change. Fig. 7-8: The NCEP CAS soil moisture anomaly forecast for July and September. Season 1-3 ahead prevailing upper air pattern: The summer 2022 upper air pattern across North America projects a high-pressure ridge promoting hot and dry climate across the West to North-central U.S. (Fig. 9). The ridge is located farther south during early summer and pushed northward by the summertime (wet) monsoon regime. The wet summertime monsoon regime is related to low-pressure in the eastern Caribbean Sea where tropical cyclone generation is likely above normal. As previously indicated in the Climate Impact Company North Atlantic Hurricane Outlook, the best environment for tropical cyclones to flourish during the 2022 season is once systems have departed the deep tropics and approach or enter the subtropics. High-pressure across Nova Scotia indicates presence a tropical cyclone steering currents toward the U.S. East Coast for later in summer. The autumn upper air projection shifts the upper ridge pattern to the Central U.S. where late warm season drought is likely (Fig. 10). Low pressure is forecast on the U.S. East Coast suggesting presence of late season tropical cyclones. Next winter the polar vortex returns and anchors over Central/East Canada causing a cold winter risk there with occasional cold outbreaks into the U.S. (Fig. 11). Fig. 9-11: Based on the Climate Impact Company Constructed Analog, the projected prevailing upper air pattern across North America for summer and autumn of 2022 plus winter 2022-23. JUN/JUL/AUG 2022: Meteorological summer 2022 is warmer than normal for nearly the entire U.S. and Southern Canada. The hottest anomalies are across the Interior Northwest while the Great Plains heat is adjusted slightly less intense. The Northeast Corridor hot summer forecast remains intact, strongest in new England. The precipitation outlook is not as dry as previously indicated across the central and eastern Great Plains. The outlook is adjusted wetter in the Missouri and Ohio Valley(s). The Interior Northeast is adjusted wetter while the previous very wet Gulf of Mexico forecast is less aggressive possibly easing the land-falling tropical cyclone risk slightly. The dry pattern is strongest in the western Great Plains, Continental Divide States and Interior Northwest. Fig. 12-13: The Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly climate forecast for JUN/JUL/AUG 2022.  SEP/OCT/NOV 2022: A somewhat warmer than normal climate pattern remains in the forecast for meteorological autumn 2022. The forecast is similar to the previous outlook. Warmest anomalies are across the Northern U.S. and Southern Canada. The precipitation outlook favors wet climate in the Northeast and western Gulf of Mexico plus the coastal Northwest States while the Central U.S. is not as dry as previously indicated. Fig. 14-15: The Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly climate forecast for SEP/OCT/NOV 2022.  Preliminary DEC/JAN/FEB 2022-23: The meteorological winter 2022-23 outlook indicates a cold polar vortex pattern across Canada with occasional outbreaks into the U.S. In the absence of any cold air from Canada, a (very) mild pattern prevails particularly in the Southwest and East. The storm track is most evident in the Mid-south/East-central States with mostly (heavy) snow on the northern portion from the Great Lakes region to Ontario plus the Canadian Maritimes. Dryness will prevail next winter season across California as long-term drought continues. Fig. 16-17: The preliminary Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly climate forecast for DEC/JAN/FEB 2022-23.