High Fire Risk Great Plains Summertime

April 2022…Washington 3rd coolest/New Mexico 2nd driest on record. 2022 so far: Driest on record for California.
05/10/2022, 2:10 pm EDT
Multivariate ENSO Index Update: La Nina 2020-22 strength peaks again.
05/16/2022, 6:39 am EDT
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Charts of the day: Summer 2022 U.S. Fire Outlook

Discussion: The early season high fire risk is well-established over New Mexico. Also of concern is northern California and western Texas plus the far northwest Great Plains. During summer, the high fire risk in northern California spreads northward. High fire risk also expands across the Great Plains during summertime.

Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid May 17-21, 2022

Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid May 22-26, 2022

Discussion: Searing early season heat stretches across Texas in the 6-10-day period and that warmth expands across the southeast States. The Northwest continues to cool. The 11-15-day forecast indicates more warmth for the South and East U.S. (plus California) but less extreme while the Northwest chill advances to the northern Great Plains. An expected wet regime in the Southeast could suppress warmth.

ECM ENS %Normal Precipitation forecast for the Medium-range

Discussion: The trend is definitely wetter. The warm/cool air mass clash causes increasing wet risk Northwest/North-central U.S. in the 6-10-day period and an active subtropical wet weather regime develops in the Gulf of Mexico and expands across the Southeast States in the 11-15-day period.

Extended-range 16-20 Day Forecast Valid May 27-31, 2022

Discussion: GFS ENS offers a warmer trend to Texas and the Southeast States motivated by the Texas drought.