Europe/Western Russia has enjoyed a mostly warmer than normal winter so far. However, a cold air mass develops east of the Black Sea region and is forecast to back westward and produce cold air across bare ground in key agriculture areas of Southwest Russia, the Black Sea region, and East/Southeast Europe.

The overnight GFS forecast, which is not agreed upon by all models, indicated a similar look to the stratosphere as observed during mid-January which spawned the polar vortex event of January 18-20. February forecasts are generally warm for now, but cold risk for western North America is increasing based on the potential stratospheric regime middle third of February.

The convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is forecast to shift eastward from Maritime Continent in early February (phase_4) toward the Dateline as middle third of February arrives (phase_6). The MJO projection across the locations identified favor a warming (Pacific maritime) influence on U.S. climate.

Winter Storm Eoywn blasts Ireland/U.K. today bringing hurricane force wind to all of Southwest/West Europe. Another storm into France is possible Thursday. However, Central Europe to Western Russia stay dry as drought concerns in that region increase.

During mid-January, an arctic air mass formed in Northern Canada and Greenland. After the arctic air mass formed, a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) episode emerged over Canada. The warming and expanding stratosphere quickly compensated for by a cooling troposphere beneath, as a polar vortex formed in central North America.

A drying soil moisture trend is established across parts of West and Southwest Russia into Eastern Europe plus west/southwest Italy to Portugal and Northwest Africa. Last week, a very dry pattern stretched across most of Europe and Western Russia. The dryness is attributed to general high pressure aloft downwind a large marine heatwave in the east/northeast North Atlantic. The 15-day outlook maintains dryness across Eastern Europe and Southwest Russia.