January 2025 - Page 3 of 4 - Climate Impact Company

01/12/2025, 10:05 am EST

Another Cold Shot for Texas Could Be Stronger Than Previous Episode

Using ALL models, the forecast consensus of minimum temperature in Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio is near or slightly colder than the just-ended cold regime although shorter in duration. The coldest morning of the January 19-22 cold spike forecast is colder than the just-ended episode for Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio.

01/10/2025, 12:10 pm EST

U.S. Observes Warmest Year On Record in 2024

The warmest year on record for the U.S. was 2024. All states were either MUCH ABOVE normal or RECORD warm. All-time records were observed in 18 states from Texas/Oklahoma to the Upper Midwest/Northeast U.S. The year of 2024 ranked 19th wettest on record in the U.S. MUCH ABOVE normal precipitation was observed in Wisconsin, Louisiana, and Rhode Island with ABOVE normal precipitation occurring in 18 states.

01/10/2025, 10:54 am EST

Evaluating Current U.S. Evaporative Drought Demand Index

As a review, the Evaporative Drought Demand Index (EDDI) can offer early warning of agricultural drought, hydrologic drought, and fire-weather risk by providing near-real-time information on the emergence or persistence of anomalous evaporative demand in a region.

01/10/2025, 5:33 am EST

Drier/Hotter Brazil Weather Pattern Shift

High pressure emerges on the Southeast Brazil Coast. This is a change from previous low pressure in this zone. Consequently, a pattern-change. Hotter and drier weather shifts across Southern Brazil. To compensate, wetter conditions develop in Northeast Argentina.

01/09/2025, 2:09 pm EST

Dramatic Cooling East Pacific Subsurface in December; La Nina Lasts to Q2/2025

The Climate Impact Company ENSO Outlook for 2025 indicates La Nina will continue through Q1/2025 and weaken during Q2/2025 followed by neutral ENSO. Late in 2025, forecast confidence is low as a weak El Nino could emerge, ENSO remains neutral, or a second La Nina generates. The DEC-24 subsurface equatorial East Pacific cooled dramatically and trails only 2008 and 2010 for coolest upper ocean heat anomalies during December for all La Nina events this century.

01/09/2025, 9:15 am EST

Colder Forecasts in The U.S. Last 1/3 of January

The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast remains unchanged and still cold through next week. However, the forecast is considerably colder for the week of Jan. 17-23 as previously forecast moderation is not likely. The cold HDD forecasts remain through Jan. 30. In February, HDD forecasts collapse as the East turns warmer.

01/08/2025, 11:35 am EST

The Southern California Fires

The meteorology involved with the fire features a low-pressure area over the northern Baja California Peninsula and a high-pressure area over the Great Basin. In-between the 2 pressure systems, easterly (Santa Ana) wind has spread across Southern California with periods of hurricane force gusts. A plethora of high wind and red flag warnings affect Southern California.

01/08/2025, 8:07 am EST

The South America Forecast Model Wet Bias

The wet forecast bias by all models across Brazil is worsening. The maximum error for the 1-5-day, 6-10-day, and 11-15-day period from the past 30 days is 3+ in. of rain. The ECM is cited due to the worst verification although other models are very close, including GFS.

01/07/2025, 8:34 am EST

More Cold Ahead in U.S. During January but HDD Forecasts Are Warm Into February

The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast stays cold with high national heating demand through next week. The outlook is moderately cold Jan. 17-23 and the extended range for February is much warmer due to an expected mild month in the East.

01/06/2025, 2:55 pm EST

Midday 12Z GFS Forecast A 963 MB Low Southeast of Nantucket Saturday

The 12Z GFS projects an evolving storm later this week in the northwest Gulf of Mexico region to travel northeastward and intensify south and southeast of New England by Saturday morning. At that time, the 12Z GFS forecasts a 963 MB low pressure area.

01/06/2025, 2:49 pm EST

La Nina BUT Many Ongoing Caveats

During DEC-24, the equatorial Pacific Ocean to the east of the Dateline produced a sharp drop in upper ocean heat. The observation is by far the coolest of 2024, a year when La Nina has struggled to develop. The dramatic subsurface cooling coupled with increased trade winds helped the Nino34 SSTA surge to a moderate-strength La Nina-like value of -1.1C Christmas Week. However, since that time waters have warmed slightly.

01/05/2025, 4:08 pm EST

Ongoing Southeast Australia Bushfires Receive Some Short-term (Only) Minor (Rain) Relief

The Southeast Coastal Region of Australia was very dry in both DEC-24 and OCT/NOV/DEC-24. Otherwise, precipitation has averaged above normal to excessively wet across many parts of the continent during that time. Helping to aggravate the Coastal Southeast Drought is anomalous warmth during Q4/2024 which became somewhat hotter than normal for East-central and Southeast Australia during DEC-24. The anomalous heat accelerated the drying of soil. Consequently, a massive bushfire regime has developed from Victoria to New South Wales.