NOAA JUN, JUL, and AUG 2025 North America fire outlooks.

Climate Impact Company Daily Feature

Issued: Monday, June 16, 2025

Highlight: JUN, JUL, and AUG 2025 North America fire outlooks.

Fig. 1-3: The NOAA/CPC monthly fire risk outlook for North America during meteorological summer.

Discussion: NOAA/CPC has updated their monthly fire risk outlook for Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. The outlook continues to indicate a major westward expansion of fire risk in Canada for mid-to-late summer, steadily widening risk in the Northwest U.S. gradually reaching California while diminishing in Mexico and increasing in Texas (Fig. 1-3). The primary contributors to the outlook are soil moisture conditions including long-term and short-term trends, neutral El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (-PDO). Drought conditions in Canada have worsened, mostly along the northwest to northeast rim of the Canadian Prairies (Fig. 4) while the strongest drought in North America is located over the Southwest U.S. to northwest Mexico (Fig. 5-6). The global SSTA forecast for mid-summer to early autumn in the northern hemisphere projects neutral ENSO (Fig. 7). Likely more relevant to the high fire risk in Western Canada to the West U.S. is the increasing risk of strong high-pressure ridging inspired by very warm sea surface temperature anomalies forecast across the North Pacific. Waters are normally cool off the West Coast of the U.S. The ongoing -PDO remains strong (since 2020). Beyond fire risk, other implications are cited by this forecast. Worsening drought across the Northwest U.S. fuels water shortage issued for Northwest U.S. Hydro, drought affects Canadian Prairies to far Northern U.S. Crops, regenerating drought in Texas suggests a possible unusually hot mid-to-late summer and lack of tropical cyclone risk in this sector.

Fig. 4-6: The Drought Monitor analysis for Canada, U.S., and Mexico.

Fig. 7: The IMME global SSTA forecast for JUL/AUG/SEP 2025.