Major Drought for Europe During Summer 2026

Climate Impact Company Month 1-5 Ahead Outlook

Europe/Western Russia

The Summer 2025 Outlook

Issued: Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Highlight: Major drought for Europe during summer 2026.

Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company Summer 2026 climate forecast indicates evolution of a major drought in Europe which extends to Southwest Russia. Accelerating the drought is increasing strength of anomalous heat. The forecast is based on developing strong El Nino, a prominent North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH), and emerging heatwaves in the Norwegian Sea and Mediterranean Sea.

Fig. 1-2: The Climate Impact Company meteorological summer 2026 temperature and precipitation anomaly outlook.

Climate discussion: The Europe summer 2026 climate outlook is based on regional SSTA projections and their analog(s). Included are an emerging and rapidly intensifying El Nino as projected for JUN/JUL/AUG 2026 by ECMWF (Fig. 3). Related to the strong warm ENSO event is the emergence of a moderate-to-strong positive Indian Ocean dipole (+IOD). In the North Atlantic, the semi-permanent North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) is forecast intense for the summer 2026 season located due south of Greenland. A marine heatwave (MHW) develops in the Norwegian Sea and Mediterranean Sea. Another MHW stretches across the subtropical North Atlantic basin. The 90-day precipitation observations across Europe indicate widespread dryness across France, Eastern Europe, the Baltic Region, and Scandinavia (Fig. 4). Consequently, dry-to-drought conditions are present in France and much of Eastern Europe (Fig. 5). The combination of regional SSTA patterns and soil moisture conditions on warm season climate across Europe favors developing wet climate across far Southern Europe (due to El Nino) and high pressure ridging east of the NAWH pattern south of Greenland combined with current dry soils to produce a hot/dry summertime forecast across much of Europe away from the Southern Europe rains.

Fig. 3: ECMWF global SSTA forecast valid for JUN/JUL/AUG 2026.

Fig. 4-5: The 90-day percent normal precipitation across Europe and daily soul moisture ranking percentile for Europe/Western Russia.

May 2026: Emerging high pressure over Northwest Russia and off the Portugal Coast during late spring. The attendant weather pattern favors anomalous warmth for most of Europe except France and Poland and West/Northwest Russia and Scandinavia. South-central Europe is wet while the remainder of Europe is drier than normal.

Fig. 6-7: The Climate Impact Company May 2026 temperature and precipitation anomaly outlook.

June 2026: Upper ridge pattern crests over U.K. and extends eastward to Southwest Russia. An upper trough drops anchor near Greece. While heavy rain is expected in Southeast Europe/Turkey, anomalous warmth and dryness extends across West-to-East Europe. Southwest Russia is (also) drier and warmer than normal. Dry-to-drought expansion is expected across Central Europe.

Fig. 8-9: The Climate Impact Company June 2026 temperature and precipitation anomaly outlook.

July 2026: Upper trough cools Northwest Russia producing a cloudy and wet regime. However, southwest of the trough, hot and dry weather is forecast West/Central Europe. The Europe drought continues to intensify.

Fig. 10-11: The Climate Impact Company July 2026 temperature and precipitation anomaly outlook.

August 2026: High pressure inspires dangerous late summer heat and dryness across Central and East Europe and includes Ukraine and vicinity. A major drought unfolds given early-to-mid-summer heat and dryness which intensifies as meteorological summer fades.

Fig. 12-13: The Climate Impact Company August 2026 temperature and precipitation anomaly outlook.

September 2026: Upper ridge amplifies across Northwest Eurasia causing significant late season anomalous heat across the Europe into Western Russia drought zone. Dry climate persists in South-central Europe and the Black Sea region and northeastward.

Fig. 14-15: The Climate Impact Company September 2026 temperature and precipitation anomaly outlook.