News
12/05/2025, 6:30 am EST
A graph of snow cover anomalies AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover for NOV-25 Near Normal But Lowest Amount Since 2009

The North America and Eurasia snow cover during November were near normal and consequently northern hemisphere snow cover was near normal and the least snowy since November 2009. Note one of the coldest winter seasons on record followed as DEC/JAN/FEB 2009-10 was frigid! Early season snow cover dictating the following winter weather pattern was a reasonably reliable climate diagnostic late last century but less so in this century.
12/05/2025, 6:22 am EST
A map of the world AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Wetter Brazil Short-term but Longer-term Forecasts Less Wet East Brazil

An upper trough on the Southeast Brazil Coast as projected by climate forecasts for early calendar summer is not there. Instead, weak low pressure across Central Brazil fuels wetter than normal conditions for Central Brazil while East Brazil is trending drier. Argentina is drier and hotter than normal.
12/04/2025, 4:51 am EST
A graph showing the average temperature AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Dynamic/AI Models Verification Report: AIFS skill scores are best for medium range North America/Europe temperature forecasts; Ongoing wet bias in Brazil.

Given the sharp increase in medium-range temperature anomaly forecasts for North America and Europe as meteorological winter 2025-26 arrives a review of 30-day skill scores using anomaly correlation is provided. For North America, as observed throughout most of 2025, AIFS ENS and ECM ENS are the top 2 forecast models. Anomaly correlation skill scores in the 0.85 range for the 6-to-10-day period are considered good too very good with a similar reliability near 0.70 in the 11-15-day period.