05/17/2022, 9:00 am EDT

Late May Tropical Cyclone Risk in Gulf of Mexico

GFS is consistent forecasting evolution of a significant tropical cyclone in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula later next week. This potential system is characterized as “significant” due to the possibility this system could become a hurricane in the open Gulf moving northward in late May.
05/16/2022, 6:42 am EDT

Evaporative Drought Demand Index Foreshadowing Summer 2022 Drought Areas

The current U.S. Evaporative Drought Demand Index (EDDI) clearly identifies much of the southern half of the U.S. as rainfall starved with attendant worsening dry to drought soil moisture. The driest EDDI is located over the Desert Southwest, south-central Nebraska, and parts of eastern Kentucky, the eastern Carolinas and Florida. The northern U.S. has benefited from cool temperatures, snowmelt and wet periods to cause a EDDI wet surplus.
05/13/2022, 11:49 am EDT

Of GREAT Concern…An Expanding Drought for Summer 2022 in the U.S.

The last major summer drought in the U.S. was observed in 2012 when the Great Plains were hit hard! The soil moisture conditions during May 2012 were quite dry but not as dry as May 2022. Given a 3rd consecutive La Nina summer the U.S. is likely to encounter a historic drought.