Late May Tropical Cyclone Risk in Gulf of Mexico

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Highlight: GFS indicates 8th straight year of a tropical cyclone before June 1st in the North Atlantic.

Fig. 1: GFS sea level pressure/10-meter wind speed forecast for the morning of May 27th.

Discussion: GFS is consistent forecasting evolution of a significant tropical cyclone in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula later next week (Fig. 1). This potential system is characterized as “significant” due to the possibility this system could become a hurricane in the open Gulf moving northward in late May. Climatology of early season tropical systems is a northward track. The season’s first storm name is Alex. If Alex forms, 2022 will mark the 8th consecutive year of a tropical cyclone prior to the official start of the tropical cyclone season which is June 1st.