The Gulf of Mexico has warmed to a basin average of +0.93C which is a whopping +0.99C change in the past 30 days. If this trend were to continue, over-achieving intensity of early season storms in the Gulf of Mexico are likely.
April 2022 ranked 50th coolest on record. The cool bias was driven by all-time top-10 Northwest to Upper Midwest chill. Washington observed their 3rd coldest April on record. Meanwhile, the Southwest U.S. including Texas observed all-time top-10 warmest months of April. Elsewhere temperatures were generally near warm. Exceptions were anomalous warm California and Florida plus New England.
La Nina 2020-22 is most likely to hang on in 2022 and last into early 2023. La Nina should weaken but last into a third year for only the 5th time since 1950. Forecast confidence remains below average, but the trend is firmly toward lingering La Nina.
Operational models are forecasting extreme rainfall over Queensland this week. The wet weather extends to New South Wales. Additionally, some wet weather is also forecast for far southwestern continent.