ECMWF Week 2-5 Outlook: The Important Storms Likely to Emerge in Gulf of Mexico

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid September 5-11, 2022: A lot of activity likely…mostly weak and out-to-sea.

Discussion: What is now 91L in the central tropical North Atlantic strengthens to a tropical cyclone and is north-northeast of Hispaniola early in the period before turning northeastward and out-to-sea. Other systems are likely but are generally not strong and stay out-to-sea.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid September 12-18, 2022: Unusually quiet for mid-September.

Discussion: A risky forecast BUT lack of a compelling reason to forecast a significant mid-September tropical cyclone based on ECM. The dry mid-troposphere atmosphere plaguing the tropical environment so far this season is on full-display as the tropics/subtropics lack much rain. A “hybrid” storm forming east of Florida is possible. This event forms from a wet pattern already in-place.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid September 19-25, 2022: Gulf of Mexico issues.

Discussion: ECM and the general climate pattern are in favor of a significant uptick in important tropical cyclone activity in the Gulf of Mexico. Two events are projected…one in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and another more potent risk into the northeast Gulf States. Other events are likely but stay out-to-sea.

Week-5 Ahead Forecast valid September 26-October 2, 2022: Gulf of Mexico could stay (very) active.

Discussion: A quiet tropical cyclone season through mid-September turns on a dime for the Gulf of Mexico. More dangerous events are likely for a second week in a row for the Gulf of Mexico as late season events roar.