-AO Sustains Northern Europe Cold and Energetic Southern Europe Storm Track

Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook

Europe/Western Russia

Issued: Wednesday, January 28, 2026

Highlight: -AO sustains Northern Europe cold and energetic Southern Europe storm track.

Charts of the day: -AO and the Southern Europe storm track.

Discussion: Well-documented is the cold influence on North America and Eurasia climate by an ongoing intense negative arctic oscillation (-AO). Additionally, -AO has inspired a vigorous Southern Europe storm track most recently associated with Winter Storm “Kristin” and effects on Portugal and Spain. -AO continues well into February maintaining the energetic Southern Europe storm track.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid February 8-15, 2026: -AO fuels Europe cold/Southern Europe energetic storm track.

Discussion: -AO sustains very cold weather across Northwest Eurasia while the Southern Europe storm track stays energetic and potentially dangerous. Heavy snows across Southwest Russia and Ukraine.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid February 15-22, 2026: Energetic storm track continues across Southern Europe.

Discussion: -AO begins to ease after mid-month. The Northern Europe cold continues with no let-up in the Southern Europe storm track.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid February 22-March 1, 2026: Storm track less intense; Milder.

Discussion: The February weather pattern shifts milder Southern Europe with the energetic storm track continuing but less intense.