Regional Differences but June 2023 Was (Nationally) Near Normal

GFS Roars Hot In 11-15-Day Forecast for Midwest!
07/10/2023, 8:11 am EDT
Northern Gulf of Mexico is Cooling off
07/13/2023, 9:50 am EDT
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Charts of the day: U.S. Temperature and precipitation state rankings for June 2023.

Discussion: June 2023 ranked 52nd warmest and 48th driest (of 129 years). The “near average” national rank was made by varying regional temperature and precipitation. The Mid-Atlantic region observed a top 10% cool regime including the 10th coolest on record in Virginia. Meanwhile, North Dakota and Minnesota were close to record warm. The Midwest U.S. was very dry as Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan were all in the top 10 driest on record. Meanwhile, Colorado, Wyoming, and Maine were in the top 5 wettest rankings.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid July 17-24, 2023: Great Lakes region temperate, elsewhere is hot.

Discussion: Prefer GFS ENS which maintains temperate climate across the Great Lakes region while elsewhere is hot. Monsoon thunderstorms appear in the Southwest States while a thundery regime lingers in the Ohio Valley to the Coastal Northeast Corridor.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid July 24-31, 2023: Maintaining Southern U.S. heat.

Discussion: An upper trough in the Northeast keeps anomalous heat suppressed in the Southern U.S. although a dry pattern dominates much of the U.S. The Midwest U.S. dryness is accompanied by seasonably warm temperatures. Texas/Oklahoma dryness occurs with excessive heat risk.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid July 31-August 7, 2023: Northwest welcomes rainfall; Southern U.S. dryness and heat persists.       

Discussion: An upper trough and some monsoon moisture cause a wet forecast for the Northwest U.S. extending to Northern California. An upper trough remains over the Northeast States. The Southern U.S. stays hot and mostly dry.