GFS Roars Hot In 11-15-Day Forecast for Midwest!

Charts of the day: GFS 11-15-day forecast is an attention-getter!

Discussion: Commodities markets will be fixated on the 11-15-day “caveat” forecast today. The GFS forecasts very hot weather across the Midwest U.S. with Chicago surging well into the 90’s and potential 100+ across the central Great Plains. In this scenario, extreme heat pulses eastward through the Northeast Corridor. California is also super-hot. Will the 12Z GFS produce a similar result at midday? Market watch on that question is likely intense. The hotter possibility is caused by heat release into the mid-atmosphere to strengthen central Great Plains high pressure from a surge of Southwest U.S. monsoon moisture.

Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid July 15-19, 2023 (24-hour change)

Discussion: The North-central U.S. cool regime is adjusted cooler near the U.S./Canada border while the East U.S. is adjusted hotter. Surrounding the North-central U.S. cool pattern is mid-summer anomalous heat!

Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid July 20-24, 2023 (24-hour change)

Discussion: The ECM ENS indicates almost the entire U.S. is hotter than normal during the summertime climatology peak for hottest weather.

U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast

Discussion: Heavy rains across the Mid-south and Northeast propelled by severe thunderstorms is indicated in the 6-10-day period. In the 11-15-day forecast, the U.S. shifts notably drier.

Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid July 25-29, 2023 (yesterday below)

Discussion: The 16-20-day forecast eases the brief heat in the Midwest States while maintaining the hot weather pattern elsewhere. Forecast confidence is below average, could be hotter. Nationally, the outlook is quite dry which supports the hotter possibility.