Unexpectedly Wet During June Northwest to Southeast Australia

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Chart of the day: June 2023 Australia rainfall and soil moisture anomalies.

Discussion: Although an expected +IOD and El Nino climate pattern are expected and each should produce a dry climate for Australia, the month of June 2023 was quite wet arcing from northwest to southeast continent. The +IOD and El Nino climate patterns remain 1-3 months away! Meanwhile, each coast of Australia was dry in June and monthly soil moisture anomalies identify the drying trend on soil moisture. Very dry soils have emerged in southern Queensland plus parts of Western Australia.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid July 17-24, 2023: Widespread dry.

Discussion: Upper level high pressure ridge stretches coast-to-coast bringing a mostly dry climate while temperatures are likely a little warmer than indicated by ECM.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid July 24-31, 2023: Likely warmer than shown.

Discussion: The upper ridge reaches northward across Australia to Indonesia. Result is more dry weather while a warmer than indicated thermal pattern is likely.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid July 31-August 7, 2023: Steadily dry.

Discussion: Upper ridge remains intact, and ECM is likely not warm enough. A mostly dry climate persists.