07/24/2023, 9:44 am EDT

GFS Occasionally Indicating East Coast Hurricane In 11-15 Days

On occasion, the GFS and ECM develop a tropical wave within the outer North Atlantic active ITCZ and carry that event west-northwest with development possible by late this week. GFS has produced two model runs that develop this system into a hurricane reaching the Mid-Atlantic Coast in 13 days.
07/23/2023, 3:49 pm EDT

Dry Soil Moisture Emerging In Australia

In Australia, the soil moisture conditions are turning drier on the East Coast and much of Western Australia. The latest 15-day outlooks indicate a changeable thermal pattern through 10 days but averaging mostly warmer than normal in the extended-range.
07/23/2023, 3:45 pm EDT

Monitoring The 30-31C/86-87F SST Presence In The North Atlantic Basin

For the first time in the historical record, accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index was above normal for a 6-year period (2016-21) averaging 159 which is considerably higher than normal (126). One of the primary contributors to the active period is the much warmer than normal North Atlantic basin sea surface temperature (SST) pattern featuring increased frequency of unusually warm SST of 30-31C (or warmer) which ignites major hurricanes.
07/23/2023, 3:41 pm EDT

Northeast Pacific Marine Heat Wave Shifts To Coast; New Marine Heat Wave Off Newfoundland

The Northeast Pacific marine heatwave “NEP23A” has intensified and shifted east during the past several weeks. Meanwhile, a dramatic change in the North Atlantic SSTA pattern has emerged causing weather pattern changes and extreme events.