09/16/2022, 8:23 am EDT

Is Fiona a “Major” Problem for the U.S. East Coast Late Next Week?

Both the ECM and GFS re-intensify Fiona into a major hurricane late next week after the storm survives passage of the Hispaniola mountains early next week. ECM indicates Fiona approaches the Southeast U.S. Coast in 10 days. GFS is stronger with Fiona but keeps the northward traveling major hurricane offshore. Of course, the first issue is whether Fiona survives the Hispaniola Mountains.
09/15/2022, 12:32 pm EDT

Comparing NOAA and CIC Q4/2022 Climate Forecasts

In the Q4/2022 outlook, NOAA and CIC are agreeable on the temperature outlook which is broadly warmer than normal across most of the U.S. The precipitation outlook is agreeable on dryness across the South U.S. However, CIC is drier on each coast and wetter in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region.
09/15/2022, 12:23 pm EDT

Central/Northern Oceans Are Very Warm and Sustain North-traveling Tropical Cyclones in SEP/OCT

Of importance to the 2022 tropical cyclone season is the much warmer than normal middle and northern latitudes of both the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The warmer than normal ocean surface will allow north-turning tropical cyclones to maintain their intensity for longer periods of time. Danielle and Earl were examples of north-traveling storms maintaining intensity much farther north than usual.
09/14/2022, 8:15 am EDT

Wet Weather Helps River Levels This Week And Early Season Chill Follows in Europe

Pattern change emerges across Europe with significant rain on the front end likely helping low river levels particularly the Rhine River. Much cooler weather follows the rain for the medium-range with slight risk of <32F/0C in Eastern Europe.