09/26/2022, 4:57 pm EDT

A Resurgent Madden Julian Oscillation Ahead!

Madden Julian oscillation shifts to phase_4/phase_5 and strengthens over the next 2 weeks according to ECMWF. The convection pattern in the tropics of the West Pacific suggests this pattern has already developed. An increase in West Pacific tropical cyclone activity and above normal rainfall stretching from Southeast Asia to Australia is likely. Conversely, the subsidence phase of MJO shifts across South America.
09/26/2022, 12:38 pm EDT

Noru to Become a Major Typhoon; Strikes Central Vietnam in 36 Hours

Typhoon Noru will continue to strengthen over the South China Sea today and move into Central Vietnam in about 36 hours bringing 1-2 feet of rain. Another tropical cyclone may follow this weekend for North Vietnam.
09/25/2022, 1:32 pm EDT

After Ian, West-central/Central North Atlantic Tropics Stay Busy According to ECM

ECM "weeklies" have been helpful identifying periods of anomalous rainfall in the deep tropics/subtropics implying presence of tropical cyclone activity. The model is persistent at producing that risk for the west-central/central North Atlantic tropics/subtropics through October.
09/23/2022, 10:56 am EDT

HMNI/HWFI Models Forecast Track and Intensity of Gulf Hurricane

The Climate Impact Company concern regarding the forecast track of Tropical Depression 9, which is certain to become a Gulf hurricane by early next week, is the more prominent hurricane forecast model HMNI and HWFI forecast track and intensities in the latest 5-day outlook.