09/22/2022, 8:31 am EDT

The Tropical Disturbance 98L Report

A review of Tropical Disturbance 98L and expectations that this system will intensify and drift into the Gulf of Mexico next week while possibly reaching major hurricane intensity.
09/20/2022, 7:42 pm EDT

Why Does La Nina End Q1/2023 and El Nino Form Later in 2023?

Motivating a third year of La Nina is the enhancing warm effects on the western equatorial Pacific Ocean of the evolving negative Indian Ocean Dipole. The -IOD pattern fades fast early next year. What follows is an equally rapid weakening of La Nina. The catalyst to sustain La Nina is gone and consequently the natural compensating ENSO reply to 3 years of La Nina is EL Nino later in 2023.
09/20/2022, 8:52 am EDT

Trouble Brewing in the Gulf of Mexico Next Week?

GFS and ECM are becoming consistent projecting a significant tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico next week. The latest GFS forecast indicates a major hurricane into the Florida Peninsula in 9-10 days and then roaring northward bringing wind and rain to the entire East Coast. Obviously, a long-range forecast but persistence of models and tendency for extreme weather events requires identifying the risk NOW. This system is in its infancy in the central North Atlantic tropics now.
09/19/2022, 7:16 pm EDT

Fiona Has Chance to Become a Category-4 Major Hurricane

HWRF indicates Fiona may intensify to a 938-939 MH intense hurricane Thursday night. If so, Fiona should reach the category-4 intense hurricane level. The old Saffir-Simpson Scale indicated <945 MB qualifies as a category-4 storm. Given the warm water and the convective tail into the tropics, this system should have no problem getting close to this level of intensity.