Is Fiona a “Major” Problem for the U.S. East Coast Late Next Week?

Central/Northern Oceans Are Very Warm and Sustain North-traveling Tropical Cyclones in SEP/OCT
09/15/2022, 12:23 pm EDT
Fiona Has Chance to Become a Category-4 Major Hurricane
09/19/2022, 7:16 pm EDT
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Fig. 1-3: NOAA/NHC 5-day forecast track of Tropical Storm Fiona and the day-10 projection by ECM and GFS each indicating a major hurricane.

Discussion: Although the 2022 tropical cyclone season has been relatively quiet so far, Tropical Storm Fiona is a storm requiring close monitoring once past Hispaniola next Tuesday. NOAA/NHC indicates Fiona moves across Hispaniola later Monday (Fig. 1). Tropical systems making this trek have difficulty surviving the passage over the mountainous terrain. Consequently, we await to what degree the Hispaniola high terrain has on Fiona’s passage early next week. Both the GFS and ECM re-intensify Fiona to a major hurricane later next week. The GFS indicates a category-4 major hurricane moving northward due east of North Carolina in 10 days (Fig. 2). The ECM indicates a category-3 major hurricane approaching the Southeast U.S. Coast in 10 days (Fig. 3). Forecast reliability is LOW right now for what Fiona does after passing Hispaniola. We may need to wait until TUE/WED of next week before an accurate risk assessment to the East Coast of Fiona is available (assuming the storm survives the Hispaniola passage).