Hot and Dry Pattern Ahead for Europe; Drought Expansion Southward!

Climate Impact Company Early AG Market ALERT

Issued: Wednesday June 11, 2025

Highlight: Hot and dry upper ridge projected over Western Europe!

Fig. 1: Europe Drought Observatory soil moisture conditions across Europe.

Fig. 2-3: Daily SSTA observations reveal the presence of marine heatwaves west of Europe and the Mediterranean Sea.

Fig. 4-6: ECM projects a titanic high-pressure ridge across Western Europe over the next 15 days producing hot and dry weather.

Discussion: The Europe Drought Observatory (EDO) identifies a large region of dry soils with varying intensity stretching across Eastern Europe into Southwest Russia and including the Black Sea region (Fig. 1). Recently, dry soils have emerged across Germany, Northern France, and U.K./Ireland. NOAA indicates a stronger dry signature in France. Large areas of much warmer than normal water emerged off the West-Southwest Coast of Europe and throughout the Mediterranean Sea (Fig. 2-3). During the warm season, these marine heatwaves often foreshadow evolution of subtropical ridging as the mid-atmosphere warms over the persistent warmer-than-normal ocean. ECM forecasts an amplified upper-level high-pressure ridge across Western Europe through the remainder of June made stronger by a connection to North Africa heat (Fig. 4). Consequently, a hot and dry pattern develops across West and South Europe (Fig. 5-6) likely to cause strengthening drought and southward expansion. Note the compensating cool and wet trough in West-central Russia extending to the Black Sea region during the period.