11/13/2022, 9:43 am EST

October 2022 State Climate Rankings

Highlight: October 2022 State Climatology Rankings Fig. 1: NOAA state rankings for temperature observed in October 2022. Discussion: In October 2022, the prevailing upper air pattern featured a persistent trough in the Southeast and ridge across the Northwest States. Consequently, the West/Northwest U.S. observed a very warm mid-autumn (Fig. 1). Included was a record warm month of October in Washington. In the East, the upper trough brought cooler than normal climate to the Southeast States and Mid-Atlantic to Ohio Valley region. To the north, Maine was very warm observing their 6th warmest October on record. The precipitation regime was drier than normal, ranking 22nd driest in the 128-year climatology. Wet areas were confined to the Southwest States plus Montana and New England while New Jersey observed their 10th wettest October on record (Fig. 2). Most states were drier than normal with California, Minnesota, and Florida near or within the top 10 driest all-time for October. Fig. 2: NOAA state rankings for precipitation observed in October 2022.    
11/13/2022, 9:25 am EST

October 2022 Wind/Solar Verification Report

Discussion: In October 2022, a persistent upper-level low-pressure trough dominated the East while a high-pressure ridge dropped anchor on the Northwest States. The sensible weather result was anomalous warmth across the West and New England while a cool pattern resided in the Southeast. Washington state was record warm. Nationally, October 2022 ranked in the top 20% driest on record. California, Minnesota and Florida were close to (or inside of) the top 10 driest months of October on record. Arizona and New Mexico observed a wetter than normal month of October. During October 2022, low-level cloudiness was above normal across the Southwest U.S. related to the wetter than normal monthly climate (Fig. 1). The high-level cloudiness was above normal to the east of this wet zone across west/southwest Texas (Fig. 2). Elsewhere, the upper trough in the East kept most attendant rainfall near or just-off the Atlantic Seaboard. Consequently, areas to the west observed above normal sunlight as demonstrated by negative specific humidity values at both 850 and 300 MB across the eastern half of the U.S. The Climate Impact Company October 2022 low-level (850 MB) and high-level (300 MB) anomalous moisture (cloud cover) forecast indicated above normal cloudiness (and attendant rainfall) in the East U.S. (Fig. 3). The wet weather pattern verified farther east and just offshore. The outlook across the Southwest U.S. was drier than normal and therefore more sunshine than average. This projection failed as lingering Southwest Monsoon moisture was present bot at low and high level (Fig. 4). Fig. 1-2: October 2022 observed 850 MB and 300 MB specific humidity anomalies. Fig. 3-4: October 2022 forecast of 850 MB and 300 MB specific humidity anomalies. On average, the U.S. anomalous wind was below average speed in October 2022. The lighter than normal zonal wind was particularly notable in the Southwest U.S. and New England (Fig. 5). Meridional wind was below normal across parts of the Northwest Coast, Great Basin and southern Great Plains (Fig. 6). The only notable above normal wind was zonal in character on the Gulf Coast and meridional for Interior Southern California and Northern New England. The Climate Impact Company zonal and meridional wind speed anomaly forecast indicated a below normal regime for Northern California and New England and above normal for Texas (Fig. 7). The meridional wind speed anomaly forecast was fairly aggressive with below normal wind speeds for the Northwest and Great Plains with above normal wind speed for the Southeast U.S. (Fig. 8). Verification results were reasonable in California and the Northeast for zonal wind although the forecast did not extend the below normal zonal wind forecast far enough across Arizona and New Mexico. The meridional wind speed anomaly forecast produced the correct character for the Northwest and Central U.S. although the Southeast was not as windy as forecast. Fig. 5-6: October 2022 observed zonal and meridional wind anomalies. Fig. 7-8: October 2022 forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies.
11/08/2022, 2:25 pm EST

Oceanic La Nina ends by FEB 2023; La Nina Climate Lingers

La Nina is moderate-to-strong enjoying a 3rd peak in intensity of the 2020-22 cold ENSO regime. However, dynamic and statistical ENSO phase forecast models are agreeable to La Nina ending in early 2023 coinciding with demise of negative Indian Ocean dipole (-IOD). However, the La Nina climate is unusually strong and could linger to the mid-point of 2023. El Nino remains a possibility for later 2023.
11/07/2022, 12:31 pm EST

Sudden Southern Oscillation Index Crash to -3.6!

The daily southern oscillation index crashed to -3.6 earlier today. The daily -SOI value is the lowest since Aug. 17, 2022, a one-day event. The last very negative SOI regime dates back to June 2020. The -SOI may last a few days due to passage of Madden Julian oscillation episode. Moderate-to-strong La Nina presence may weaken slightly during this transaction.