11/18/2022, 10:43 am EST

December/January 2022-23 Monthly Wind and Solar Outlook

EXPERIMENTAL Zonal/Meridional Wind Anomaly Forecast EXPERIMENTAL Specific Humidity Anomaly Forecast Valid: December 2022 and January 2023 Methodology discussion: The December/January 2022-23 zonal/meridional wind and solar forecast is based on a constructed analog (CA). The constructed analog identifies regional sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) that influence North America climate. Past similar SSTA regimes are accumulated, and their correlating climate patterns are used to project the most likely climate scenarios going forward from the next two months to generate this forecast. The wind/relative humidity anomaly forecast is experimental. Zonal (west-east) and meridional (north-south) anomalies are projected for wind generation use. The relative humidity at 850 MB (5,000 feet) is used to project low cloud potential interference with sunlight and similarly at 300 MB (30,000 feet) to project potential interference from high (cirrus) clouds.    Climate discussion: The CIC-CA forecast presented is based on the projected significant influence on North America climate of a persistent La Nina, Northeast Pacific marine heat wave and the combination of a warmer than normal North Atlantic basin coupled with a large cool pool of ocean water south and southeast of Greenland referred to as the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH). December/January 2022-23 wind forecast: In December, the projected upper air pattern based on the CIC-CA forecast renders a persistent cold upper trough in Central Canada. However, the attendant cold and snow is likely to stay mostly in Canada while a milder and drier Pacific zonal flow stretches across the U.S. In December, zonal wind speed anomalies are stronger than normal across Western Canada and into the northwest quadrant of the U.S. (Fig. 1). Above normal zonal wind is also likely across wind power generating areas of Western Texas. However, elsewhere zonal wind speed anomalies are generally near normal. The meridional wind speed anomalies are well below normal on the West Coast and Nevada (Fig. 2). However, above normal north-south wind speeds are prevalent across the Southeast and East U.S. In January, above normal zonal wind speed continues across Southwest Canada and the leeward Rocky Mountains southward through Texas (Fig. 3). Below normal zonal wind speed anomalies are indicated for the Southwest and Northeast U.S. The meridional wind speed anomaly forecast for mid-winter indicates mostly below normal values for much of the U.S. (Fig. 4). In summary, the CIC-CA wind speed anomaly forecast for DEC/JAN 2022-23 does not indicate unusually anomalous wind speeds for wind power generation areas with the possible exception of Texas. Fig. 1-2: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies for the U.S. during December 2022. Fig. 3-4: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies for the U.S. during January 2023. December/January 2022-23 solar forecast: Interestingly, the December outlook features a nationally below normal relative humidity (RH) forecast at 850 MB with strongest anomalies in California and the leeward Southern Rockies (Fig. 5). Implied is below normal cloud cover for much of the U.S. at 5,000 feet where most clouds producing precipitation occur. December could be an unusually dry month for the U.S. At 30,000 feet where cirrus could hinder sunlight intensity, the December 300 MB RH anomaly forecast is below normal across the Southwest U.S. especially California (Fig. 6). Sunlight intensity is at an annual minimum during DEC/JAN although in December sunlight amount is likely much above normal for solar power generation areas across the Southwest U.S. In January, the below normal RH pattern at both the low and high cloud etage continues across much of the U.S. (Fig. 7-8). Fig. 5-6: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of 850 MB (low cloud) and 300 MB (high cloud) specific humidity anomalies for the U.S. during December 2022. Fig. 7-8: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of 850 MB (low cloud) and 300 MB (high cloud) specific humidity anomalies for the U.S. during January 2023.  
11/17/2022, 8:54 am EST

Hot/dry Summer Argentina; Most (Not All) of Brazil Avoids Drought

The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) climate forecast for South America during meteorological summer 2022-23 indicates persistent anomalous heat and dryness in Argentina where flash drought is quite possible. The dryness extends to Southeast Brazil although less consistent. Far Southeast Brazil has a drought risk for summer 2022-23. The remainder of Brazil Crop Areas is normally wet with diminished drought risk.
11/17/2022, 8:45 am EST

Know Where the NAWH trough/NEP22A Ridge Features are Located

In control…the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) and attendant upper trough south of Greenland and the upper ridge associated with the North/Northeast Pacific marine heat wave (NEP22A) are providing significant influence on the North America climate pattern.
11/16/2022, 4:57 am EST

Argentina Marine Heat Wave Influencing South America Climate

Executive summary: Climate Impact Company frequently identifies the Northeast Pacific marine heat wave (“warm blob”) and more recently the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) as regional SSTA having a profound influence on atmospheric circulation affecting North America and Europe climate. In the current American Meteorological Society Journal of Climate, research identifying and explaining the marine heat wave off the East Asia Coast and the attendant dramatic influence on East Asia climate was published. New to the oceanic global climate influencers are these large areas of anomalous warm and cool zones, part of climate change, that help to explain unusual climate patterns and help to predict future dramatic climate regimes. Added to the list, is the marine heat wave east of Argentina which in November 2022 is strengthening. Fig. 1-2: Emerging marine heat wave east of Argentina and the correlating November 2022 (so far) upper air pattern. Discussion: The marine heat wave east of Argentina, also referred to as the Argentina “warm blob” is vividly identified in the daily South Atlantic SSTA analysis (Fig. 1). The upper air pattern for November 2022 (so far) identifies the correlation of these warm oceanic zones to upper-level high-pressure ridging amplified along the Argentina Coast (Fig. 2). The warm SSTA region is gaining strength (Fig. 3) and 15-day forecasts maintain the upper-level ridge pattern east of Argentina heading toward the start of meteorological summer (Fig. 4). Fig. 3-4: The 30-day SSTA change across the South Atlantic basin and the ECM ENS 15-day upper air forecast. Fig. 5-6: The precipitation anomalies across South America in November so far and the daily South America soil moisture analysis. The evolving upper ridge is causing the November 2022 precipitation climate pattern to turn drier in Southern Brazil (Fig. 5) as the wet spring pattern in this location is clearly abating. A dry spring across Argentina has already caused dry soils and drought for that zone (Fig. 6). Climate Impact Company projects the dry pattern in Argentina to expand northward during the summer 2022-23 season. Note that to the north of the warmer than normal oceans east of Argentina, an area of cooler (near normal) SSTA is present off the Brazil Coast. Also note the persistent upper-level low-pressure trough just west of the cooler SSTA zone over southeast Brazil during November (so far). The 15-day outlook identifies the presence of this upper trough maintain that position and causing wet weather across eastern and northern portions of Brazil (Fig. 7). So…while Argentina dryness is likely to spread north, a wet pattern across north and east Brazil is not far away and likely sustained into the approaching summer season. Fig. 7: The ECM ENS 15-day rainfall anomaly forecast across South America. Summary: The strengthening “warm blob” of SSTA to the east of Argentina is well-correlated to anomalous high-pressure ridging aloft. At times, that high-pressure influence causes dryness and anomalous heat in Argentina likely to expand northward into Southern Brazil during the summer season. To compensate for the upper ridge, a wet low-pressure trough (correlated to slightly cool SSTA east of Brazil) is also likely to persist and cause a wet pattern for north and east portions of Brazil into the summer 2022-23 season.