11/16/2022, 4:55 am EST

Argentina Marine Heat Wave Influencing South America Climate

The strengthening “warm blob” of SSTA to the east of Argentina is well-correlated to anomalous high-pressure ridging aloft. At times, that high-pressure influence causes dryness and anomalous heat in Argentina likely to expand northward into Southern Brazil during the summer season. To compensate for the upper ridge, a wet low-pressure trough (correlated to slightly cool SSTA east of Brazil) is also likely to persist and cause a wet pattern for north and east portions of Brazil into the summer 2022-23 season.
11/14/2022, 4:56 am EST

U.S. Cold Breaks in the 11-15-Day Period

Unusually cold weather settles over the U.S. during the next 10 days. However, the cold is projected to break after 10 days retreating to Canada while much of the U.S. is temperate.
11/14/2022, 4:54 am EST

High Impact Weather to Develop Europe/Western Russia

The NAWH trough is extending eastward and will now produce another high impact weather regime across Western Europe…excessive rainfall! The GFS 15-day rainfall forecast indicates several in. of rain with high spots >5 in. for Western and Southern Europe for the second half of November. Farther downstream, a cold and snowy trough develops in Western Russia next week.
11/13/2022, 10:30 am EST

Remainder of November 2022 Wind and Solar Outlook

Remainder of November 2022 Outlook Wind Outlook Discussion: Moderate to high wind is forecast for the next several days across Northern California as strong high pressure extends from southern Canada to the Great Basin and forces gusty north and east wind into northern California (Fig. 1). Mid-to-late this week and into early next week lighter wind is expected. Later this month, arrival of a Pacific upper-level low-pressure trough will spawn a period of increasing westerly wind across northern California. In Southern California, wind power generation is “moderate” today and Wednesday, due to increasing easterlies (Fig. 2). After the short-term events, wind generation is weak for the remainder of November. Wind generation is not a problem across Texas for mid-to-late November as at least moderate risk is present most of the time (Fig. 3). A moderate southerly wind will develop for early this week across Texas followed by chilly northerlies Monday night. A cold burst (with moderate north wind) for mid-to-late week is likely. Return-flow southwesterlies early next week followed by another cool outbreak featuring gusty northerlies around Thanksgiving is expected in Texas. Fig. 1: Wind generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for Northern California. Fig. 2: Wind generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for Southern California. Fig. 3: Wind generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for Texas. Solar Outlook Discussion: Near peak solar generation capability (for November) is forecast across California through the next week as high pressure dominates and skies are generally clear across the state (Fig. 4). However, the last 7-10 days of November feature increased exposure to Pacific westerlies across Northern California therefore increased cloud (and rain/snow) risk is likely. Consequently, state wind average for solar generation capability lowers for the last third of November. In Texas, despite sharp air mass changes, the solar generation potential is moderate through the next 10 days with 2 or 3 days close to ideal (Fig. 5). There may be 2 or 3 days when solar generation is suppressed more so than indicated in the 10-day forecast. In the extended-range, cloud cover may be near or above normal with wet weather risk due to a moisture fetch off the Gulf of Mexico. Fig. 4: Solar generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for CAISO. Fig. 5: Solar generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for ERCOT.