11/08/2022, 2:25 pm EST

Oceanic La Nina ends by FEB 2023; La Nina Climate Lingers

La Nina is moderate-to-strong enjoying a 3rd peak in intensity of the 2020-22 cold ENSO regime. However, dynamic and statistical ENSO phase forecast models are agreeable to La Nina ending in early 2023 coinciding with demise of negative Indian Ocean dipole (-IOD). However, the La Nina climate is unusually strong and could linger to the mid-point of 2023. El Nino remains a possibility for later 2023.
11/07/2022, 12:31 pm EST

Sudden Southern Oscillation Index Crash to -3.6!

The daily southern oscillation index crashed to -3.6 earlier today. The daily -SOI value is the lowest since Aug. 17, 2022, a one-day event. The last very negative SOI regime dates back to June 2020. The -SOI may last a few days due to passage of Madden Julian oscillation episode. Moderate-to-strong La Nina presence may weaken slightly during this transaction.
11/07/2022, 5:04 am EST

Another Historic Month of Rainfall in Australia

Widespread excessive rainfall was observed across much of Eastern Australia during October 2022 and more rain is on the way although less excessive for the next 2 weeks as an upper low-pressure pattern over the continent is sustained.
11/04/2022, 1:54 pm EDT

Strong Multivariate ENSO Index Keeping Maintaining Strong La Nina Climate

Will La Nina end during early 2023 as most dynamic/statistical models indicate? We’ve faced this question at the same time in 2021 and 2020. On each occasion, dynamic/statistical models were satisfied that the preceding La Nina would be compensated for by El Nino the following year. Instead, multivariate ENSO index maintained a strengthening La Nina climate.