In a worse case scenario, the evolving cold pattern in Western Russia is trending stronger and is now more expansive into Europe likely reaching U.K. in the medium range. The Canadian Ensemble most effectively illustrates the cold risk. In the 6-10-day period a frigid air mass over Western Russia is enhanced by widening and deepening snow cover (Fig. 1). At that time, residual chill spreads across the northern 2/3 of Europe. Unfortunately, the colder pattern is stronger and more widespread in the 11-15-day period (Fig. 2). The colder trend is most evident by the emergence and expanse of <zero F risk during the medium range (Fig. 3-4).
Fig. 1-2: CMC ENS medium-range temperature anomaly forecasts across Europe and Western Russia.
Fig. 3-4: ECM ENS medium-range risk of <0F forecast across Europe and Western Russia.