Chilly Regimes Increasing a Freeze Risk to the Brazil Coffee-Growing Areas During Mid-Winter Not Tied to ENSO Since 1995  

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Fig. 1: Chilly July regimes in Brazil since 1995.

Discussion: Since 1995, chilly temperature regimes in or very near the Brazil coffee growing areas during mid-winter (July) have occurred in 11 years. The average temperature anomaly of the 11 analog years is coolest just west of the coffee growing areas. Interestingly, there are no exceptional ENSO regimes tied to these (July) observations. During the 11 analog years, ENSO was neutral on 7 occasions with weak El Nino or weak La Nina equally distributed for 2 years each. Since 1995, mid-winter (July) has average somewhat warmer than normal for 17 of the 28 years reviewed.