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11/14/2023, 8:51 am EST
Late season subtropical/tropical trouble is brewing in the North Atlantic basin. A subtropical storm is possible east-northeast of Florida late this week while a full-blown tropical cyclone emerges in the Caribbean Sea.
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11/14/2023, 5:14 am EST
Most evident in the 6-10-day period, the subtropical ridge delivering a hot and mostly dry 1-5-day forecast splits in the 6-10-day period to allow tropical moisture to shift across Central Brazil in a forecast change. In the 11-15-day period, Central Brazil trends wetter for the same reason.
11/13/2023, 1:27 pm EST
The subtropical ridge over Southeast Brazil edges eastward in the 6-10-day period which allows a moisture feed from the deep tropics into central continent and a wetter forecast change.
11/09/2023, 2:09 pm EST
In October 2023, the Nino34 SSTA index was +1.59C which eclipses the +1.50C threshold for strong oceanic El Nino classification. However, the response of the atmospheric climate pattern to the El Nino warming is weak yielding neutral multivariate ENSO index (MEI = +0.3) during SEP/OCT 2023. Preliminary investigation reveals this is a first-time occurrence for a strong oceanic El Nino.