Fig. 1: North Atlantic basin satellite view and current tropical systems.
Discussion: Late season activity is brewing in the North Atlantic basin (Fig. 1). A low-pressure area south of Louisiana is a conventional storm but loaded with tropical moisture off the warmer than normal Gulf of Mexico. This system drifts east and into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico midweek and reforms off the east coast of Florida possibly as a subtropical storm. This feature travels northeastward and could be closer to the Northeast Coast than indicated as a subtropical storm early weekend. Meanwhile, a tropical disturbance is forming in the southwest Caribbean Sea. NOAA/NHC indicates a 70% chance of a tropical storm after 48 hours which all forecast model solutions support. Eventually, there is potential for a late season hurricane near Hispaniola this weekend travelling north-northeastward early next week.