News
02/27/2023, 8:37 pm EST

Oceanic La Nina Fades to Neutral Phase

Last week, Nino34 SSTA warmed to -0.3C which is neutral ENSO. Only the Nino4 region is at the La Nina threshold. The Nino3 SSTA warmed too exactly normal. The weekly observations maintain the trend of a slow decay of La Nina dating back to late last year.
02/26/2023, 12:07 pm EST

Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum Shift to Positive Phase

Helping to support an eastward expansion of the Western U.S. cold is a shift to positive phase of the global atmospheric angular momentum. During +GLAAM regimes, the mid-latitude jet stream strengthens and the hemispheric pattern becomes less amplified.
02/23/2023, 5:09 pm EST

MJO Shift Drives Colder U.S. Pattern in March

ECMWF 30-day MJO forecast indicates and intense signature shifting through the eastern equatorial Pacific and into the tropical Atlantic during March. Normally, during early meteorological spring, MJO shifting into this region with intensity produces a cold U.S. upper trough pattern as indicated by ECMWF "Weeklies".
02/23/2023, 4:16 pm EST

AG Market Research: Crop Area Drought Risk Monitor for MAR/APR and MAY/JUN 2023

Climate Impact Company Global Drought Outlook Crop Area Drought Risk Monitor for MAR/APR and MAY/JUN 2023 Drought WARNING: U.S. hard winter wheat, Russia eastern spring wheat, Northern Kazakhstan wheat, Argentina, Southern China soybeans and corn, Drought WATCH: U.S. and Canada spring wheat, Western Europe corn and wheat and Southern Russia corn and wheat. Northern Hemisphere Location/Crop Table 1 Current Soil Moisture MAR/APR 2023 Drought Risk MAY/JUN 2023 Drought Risk   U.S. Corn Western Corn Belt drought, Indiana is dry. Wetter than normal, mainly east, and south. Wetter than normal. U.S. Hard Winter Wheat Drought for most of the crop area. Eastern areas (March) and southern areas (April) are wet. Otherwise, dry. Drier than normal. U.S. Soybeans Near Normal West; East Wet. Wetter than normal, especially March. Marginally wet forecast; drier trend possible. U.S. Spring Wheat Moderate drought is dominant. Wetter than normal March, drier April. Marginally dry. Canada Spring Wheat Moderate drought is dominant. Wetter than normal for southern zones in March and eastern zones in April. Otherwise, dry. Drier than normal. Europe Corn Western Corn Belt is in moderate drought; East is wet. West zone stays dry, wet east, especially April.   Wetter than normal. Europe Wheat Western Wheat Belt is in moderate drought; East is wet. West zone stays dry, wet east especially April.   Wetter than normal. Ukraine Wheat Wet west; dry east. Mostly drier than normal. Dry May, wet June. Russia Corn Wet north; dry tendencies well south. Northern areas are wet, otherwise dry.   Drier than normal. Russia Winter Wheat Wet north; dry tendencies well south. Northern areas are wet, otherwise dry.   Drier than normal. Russia Spring Wheat Wet west/central; dry east. Favoring wetter than normal. Mostly wet in May; dry west/central region in June. Kazakhstan Wheat Northern areas in drought. Wetter than normal except dry southern areas. Dry except wet far north/northeast wheat areas. Table 1: Major crop areas for the northern hemisphere, their current soil moisture classification and drought risk for MAR/APR to MAY/JUN 2023. U.S. discussion: The Western U.S. Corn Belt is in D2 to D4 drought. The Eastern U.S. Corn Belt contains dry soils in Indiana. The short-term forecast is wet across the central and eastern Corn Belt which will ease soil moisture deficits. The U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat zone is also in D2 to D4 drought. Only eastern Kansas is avoiding this condition. Moderate precipitation is in the 2-week forecast for this region, which should provide some slight benefit. U.S. and Canadian Spring Wheat are in moderate drought. Two-week forecasts offer moderate snow across these regions. MAR/APR Outlook: Dry risks are mainly the western Great Plains and northern Great Plains in April. Canadian spring wheat has marginal wet opportunities far south and east crop region. MAY/JUN Outlook: Central and eastern corn look wetter than normal. Western corn (and soybeans) has a dry risk. Also, drier than normal is the west/southwest Great Plains and spring wheat growing areas in both the U.S. and Canada. Widening drought concerns are appearing for the western Great Plains. Europe discussion: The Europe Corn and Wheat Belt is split between marginal to moderate dryness western areas, worst condition in France while central and eastern areas are wetter than normal. The 2-week outlook generally supports the current pattern: Drier than normal western areas and wet across south and east sections. MAR/APR Outlook: Western Europe drought strengthens while Southern Europe drought may ease. Eastern Europe is wet, especially in April. MAY/JUN Outlook: A marginally confident wetter than normal forecast for late spring. Ukraine discussion: Soil moisture is generally wetter than normal across western Ukraine and drier than normal in far eastern sections. The 2-week outlook is slightly drier than normal. MAR/APR Outlook: Mostly drier than normal. MAY/JUN Outlook: Forecast confidence is low. Drier than normal May climate and wetter June is expected. Avoiding drought heading into summer. Russia discussion: Both the corn and wheat growing areas are quite wet across northern sections drying to near normal central and south with a drier tendency far south. Spring wheat growing areas contain wetter than normal soils west and central region reversing into drought for the eastern 40% of the crop area. The 2-week outlook is wetter than normal across the entire spring wheat zone with patchy wet weather across corn and wheat areas. MAR/APR Outlook: Northern corn and wheat-growing areas are wet while farther south a drier tendency is likely. Spring wheat region is mostly wetter than normal especially in March. MAY/JUN Outlook: Drought is developing for southern portions of the corn and wheat-growing areas. Spring wheat has enough of a varied precipitation forecast to avoid significant drought heading into summer. Kazakhstan discussion: Northern Kazakhstan Wheat is in drought. The 2-week outlook is mostly dry across this region. MAR/APR Outlook: Wetter than normal although far southern areas are dry. MAY/JUN Outlook: Far north and east wheat-growing areas are likely wetter than normal while the remainder of the crop areas is drier than normal. Heading into summer a major drought is not indicated. South Asia and Southern Hemisphere Location/Crop Table 2 Current MAR/APR 2023 Drought Risk MAY/JUN 2023 Drought Risk   Thailand Sugarcane Mostly wetter than normal. Slightly drier than normal. Wetter than normal. China Soybeans/Corn North Wetter than normal soils. Drier than normal. Marginally wetter than normal. China Soybeans/Corn South Strong drought away from coast. Beneficial rainfall. Marginally drier than normal. China Wheat Drought far south; wet elsewhere. Drier than normal. Near normal rainfall. India Wheat Eastern wheat region is drying while west/northwest sections are wetter than normal. Trending wetter than normal April. Wetter than normal. Sumatra/Borneo Palm Oil Marginal dryness appearing in Borneo, Malaysia is wetter than normal. Wetter than normal March, drier than normal April. Turning drier than normal. Australia Wheat West Core of crop area is wet while surrounding fringe is dry. Mostly drier than normal. Mixed signals, favoring a dry pattern. Australia Wheat East Wet soils except much drier than normal soils far northern crop area. Mostly drier than normal. Mixed signals, favoring a dry pattern. Brazil Corn No. 1 Far southern areas are in drought. Central and north areas are near normal. Wet North; Dry South. Turning drier than normal. Brazil Corn No. 2 Marginally dry North, mostly wet southern areas. Mostly drier than normal. Wet near Paraguay. Turning drier than normal. Brazil Soybeans Marginally dry North, mostly wet southern areas. Mostly drier than normal. Wet near Paraguay. Turning drier than normal. Brazil Wheat Mostly wet. Mostly wetter than normal. Turning drier than normal. Argentina Corn/Soybean Major drought. Staying mostly dry. Turning wetter than normal. Table 2: Major crop areas for the southern hemisphere, their current soil moisture classification and drought risk for MAR/APR to MAY/HUN 2023. Thailand discussion: Marginally wet soils are across the entire sugarcane region. The 15-day outlook is dry. MAR/APR Outlook: Typically dry for the next 2 months. MAY/JUN Outlook: Low forecast confidence in a wetter than normal regime. China discussion: Southern China soybeans and corn are in an intense drought. Eastern portions are trending wetter. Northern China soybeans and corn have plentiful soil moisture. The wheat crop is mostly OK with wetter than normal soils although far southern wheat is in a drought. The 2-week forecasts are seasonably dry. MAR/APR Outlook: Northern crop areas are expected to shift drier. Southern crop areas where drought is present are likely to gain above normal rainfall but not enough to reverse drought. MAY/JUN Outlook: Southern crop areas are likely marginally dry with marginally wet conditions across northern crop areas. India discussion: Eastern wheat areas are observing a steady drier trend. West/northwest sections are marginally wetter than normal. The 2-week outlook is seasonably dry. MAR/APR Outlook: There are dry concerns across northeastern India. However, the climate outlooks trend wetter than normal, especially in April. MAY/JUN Outlook: Low forecast confidence in a wetter than normal regime. Sumatra/Borneo discussion: The tendency is drier across Borneo while wetter than normal soils persist across Sumatra. Sumatra is quite wet in the 2-week outlook while Borneo observes marginally dry conditions. MAR/APR Outlook: March is projected to be wetter than normal. However, a drier pattern change is likely in April. MAY/JUN Outlook: El Nino development strongly favors a dry climate. Australia discussion: In the East, soil moisture is ample except for northern wheat zones where dryness is developing. Western wheat core crop area is wetter than normal while surround areas are quite dry. The 2-week outlook is dry. MAR/APR Outlook: A drier than normal climate is ahead. MAY/JUN Outlook: A shift toward El Nino and a possible +IOD pattern supports a dry climate pattern. Brazil discussion: The far southern Corn Crop Number 1 is in drought while the remainder of this region varies and averages near normal. The southern Corn Crop Number 2 and the soybeans region is quite wet with a drier tendency for northern areas. The Brazil wheat-growing areas continue to observe wet episodes. The 2-week outlook is mostly wetter than normal. MAR/APR Outlook: Areas near and east of Paraguay are susceptible to heavy rains. Elsewhere, a drier than normal pattern. MAY/JUN Outlook: Turning drier than normal as ENSO transition toward El Nino is the catalyst. Argentina discussion: A strong drought is in-place across Argentina. The 2-week outlook is mostly drier than normal. MAR/APR Outlook: A drier than normal pattern is expected. MAY/JUN Outlook: The ENSO transition fuels a wetter than normal pattern although not sufficient to break drought.