Sharp Cold Front into Argentina Thursday Triggers Thunderstorms Then Cooler Temperatures in Drought Area

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Fig. 1-2: ECM temperature and rainfall anomalies over the next 5 days across Argentina and Brazil.

Fig. 3-4: 12Z GFS temperature and percent of normal rainfall forecast across Argentina and Brazil.

Discussion: A strong cold front moves north through Argentina Thursday. The front triggers a line of thunderstorms across the core of the Argentina drought area on Thursday (Fig. 1). By Friday, Argentina is much cooler (Fig. 2) while the front triggers more rain across Southern Brazil. Interestingly, ECM keeps the northern half of the second corn crop in Brazil mostly dry during this sequence. The GFS is somewhat wetter. In the 6-10-day period new heat regenerates in Argentina (Fig. 3) with little or no rain in the forecast. To the north, the wet zone stretches across the south and east second corn crop zone in Brazil (Fig. 4). In the 11-15-day period, more heat is likely across Argentina (Fig. 5). Meanwhile, the 12Z GFS generates impressive heat centered on the 6-10-day period in Australia (Fig. 6). At that time, maximum temperatures can reach >110F.

Fig. 5-6: 12Z GFS temperature anomaly forecast across Argentina and Brazil plus the 6-10-day temperature anomaly forecast across Australia.