News
02/10/2023, 9:44 am EST

January 2023 Solar/Wind Verification Report

Discussion: January 2023 was the 18th wettest in the 1895-2023 U.S. climatology. Consequently, mid-winter was remarkably cloudy much of the time across the U.S. At 850 MB (5,000 feet), above normal cloudiness was most anomalous across California where the 13th wettest January on record was observed (Fig. 1). Low and high clouds (Fig. 2) occurred together to strongly limit solar influence across most of the Great Plains, Midwest and Northeast U.S. Two areas enjoyed above normal sunlight during January: Southern Texas and the Florida Peninsula. The Climate Impact Company Experimental Forecast for January did an excellent job of projecting well above normal low cloud cover in California (Fig. 3). The outlook also performed well with the above normal low clouds centered on the Missouri Valley and vicinity. However, high cloudiness was well under-forecast (Fig. 4). The southern Texas/Florida Panhandle below normal cloud cover forecast verified. Fig. 1-2: January 2023 observed 850 MB and 300 MB relative humidity anomalies. Fig. 3-4: January 2023 forecast of 850 MB and 300 MB relative humidity anomalies. During January 2023, wind speeds were generally below normal across the northern tier of the U.S. while both zonal and meridional wind speeds were above normal across the Southwest U.S. including Southern California and much of the Southeast States (Fig. 5-6). The Climate Impact Company Experimental Forecast for January produced excellent results forecasting below normal wind speeds for the Northeast States and above normal wind speeds in Florida. However, the stronger than normal windspeeds observed in the Southwest U.S. were under-forecast (Fig. 7-8). Fig. 5-6: January 2023 observed zonal and meridional wind anomalies. Fig. 7-8: January 2023 forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies.
02/09/2023, 12:33 pm EST

Arctic Air May Be Returning Later This Month

In today's midday 12Z GFS forecast the model delivers an arctic outbreak to the U.S. in 15-16 days. The event is supported by strong stratospheric warming. The outbreak could occur earlier based on the stratospheric warming evolution underway next week.
02/09/2023, 9:07 am EST

La Nina Dissipates Over Next 1-3 months; El Nino Onset by Mid-2023

The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is forecast to shift eastward across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the next 2 weeks. Following passage of the MJO, equatorial wind shifts to west or southwest and eliminates trade winds. The lack of trade winds eliminates the up-welling process that sustains La Nina. Oceanic La Nina 2020-23 likely dissipates by March 1st.