Chart of the day: Short-term heavy rains on Paraguay and vicinity.
Discussion: More heavy rain is ahead centered on Paraguay in the latest GFS 5-day forecast. The model projects up to 4 in. of rain in this zone for the current week. Renegade thunderstorms are more widespread in Northern Argentina and Southeast Brazil this week.
Week-2 Valid March 6-13, 2023, 2022: Argentina dryness and heat.
Discussion: Argentina remains dry and hot next week as late summer season drought continues to strengthen. Brazil stays mostly wet.
Week-3 Valid March 13-20, 2023: MJO inspired wetter changes.
Discussion: Eastward shifting MJO across the Pacific triggers wetter pattern change for both Brazil and Argentina.
Week-4 Valid March 20-27, 2023: Stays on the wet side.
Discussion: The wetter mid-March pattern lingers into late month.