MJO-Driven Wet Weather Ahead for Argentina by mid-March

Oceanic La Nina Fades to Neutral Phase
02/27/2023, 8:37 pm EST
Developing JUN/JUL/AUG 2023 El Nino climate; U.S./Europe Expectations
03/01/2023, 7:50 am EST
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Chart of the day: Short-term heavy rains on Paraguay and vicinity.

Discussion: More heavy rain is ahead centered on Paraguay in the latest GFS 5-day forecast. The model projects up to 4 in. of rain in this zone for the current week. Renegade thunderstorms are more widespread in Northern Argentina and Southeast Brazil this week.

Week-2 Valid March 6-13, 2023, 2022: Argentina dryness and heat.

Discussion: Argentina remains dry and hot next week as late summer season drought continues to strengthen. Brazil stays mostly wet.

Week-3 Valid March 13-20, 2023: MJO inspired wetter changes.

Discussion: Eastward shifting MJO across the Pacific triggers wetter pattern change for both Brazil and Argentina.

Week-4 Valid March 20-27, 2023: Stays on the wet side.

Discussion: The wetter mid-March pattern lingers into late month.