(Needed) Wet Weather Pattern Change Ahead for India

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Charts of the day: Emerging dry soils in Northeast India.

Discussion: Dry soil moisture anomalies are emerging across the northeast sector of India. The dry soil moisture regime is expanding westward into the far eastern portion of the wheat, soybean, and corn crop areas of Central India. Fortunately (for India), for now, deep layer soil moisture dryness is confined to Afghanistan where hostile long-term drought is in effect. The 90-day seasonal percentage of normal rainfall indicates a strong dry anomaly across the northeast quadrant of India to Bangladesh.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid March 6-13, 2023: Very warm Northwest; stays dry Northeast.

Discussion: Next week, an area of rain is forecast to extend off the Northern Indian Ocean and into Western India. However, most of the wet weather stays offshore and dryness dominates Northern and Eastern India.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid March 13-20, 2023: Forecast confidence is below average on a wetter pattern change.

Discussion: Although NOT supported by the MJO forecast, models are indicating emergence of a Northwest Indian Ocean upper trough likely to inspire a wet fetch off the Indian Ocean into the Indian Peninsula. The wet pattern would begin to ease dry concerns in Northeast India.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid March 20-27, 2023: Wet!

Discussion: The upper trough supporting the wet pattern change is stronger and India trends wetter (and cooler). The MJO support for this wet weather pattern remains in question.