Dryness Returns to Wheat-growing Areas of East China

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Charts of the day: 30-day/7-day percent of normal precipitation observations.

Discussion: The 30-day percent of normal precipitation observations across Asia reveal persistent dryness across India wheat-growing areas and dryness of late winter across wheat-growing areas in East China recently gained a wetter pattern change. The wet pattern over Southeast and East Asia in the 7-day analysis is related to a pulse of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) in this region during the past week.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid April 4-10, 2022: Dry and warm in China,

Discussion: MJO weakens therefore limited ability for heavy rains in the tropics to surge northward. The northern Indian Ocean and Indonesia are soaking wet due to the much warmer than normal surface (and subsurface) ocean. North of the convective rains a very warm pattern stretches across China.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid April 11-17, 2022: Needed rainfall for India; China stays dry.

Discussion: Wet weather pattern remains intact across the tropics and backs westward into India where rainfall is needed. Dryness with anomalous warmth persists across much of China.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid April 18-24, 2022: China dryness becomes a concern for wheat-growing areas.

Discussion: East/South India and Southeast Asia remains the wet zone while China stays mostly dry and warmer than normal.