News
03/28/2022, 2:12 pm EDT

Weak La Nina Could Regain Some Strength in April as Subsurface Cools

During March, the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) was strong and caused anomalous convection in the far western equatorial Pacific region. The rising air currents associated with the convection is replaced from the east by increasing trade winds which has up-welled cooler subsurface waters and caused the central/east-central equatorial Pacific to cool restrengthening La Nina.
03/28/2022, 4:50 am EDT

Europe/Western Russia/Black Sea Region Turns Colder and Stormy for Early April

This week, a transition to a sharp negative phase of the Scandinavia Index takes place. During -SCAND, an upper trough becomes dominant across northwest Eurasia. Initially, temperatures turn quite cold across Northern Europe/Northwest Russia featuring some arctic air. In the 6-10-day period the upper trough elongates into Southwest Europe and the attendant chill expands across all of Europe reaching Ukraine and Western Russia.
03/24/2022, 8:36 am EDT

An Update on The El Nino Southern Oscillation 2022

The 2020-22 "double dip" La Nina peaked in late 2020 and again in late 2021. However, despite a brief disruption in La Nina according to the Nino34 index, the actual La Nina climate has persisted for nearly 2 years according to multivariate ENSO index. Will the 2022 climate remain in La Nina phase despite the neutral ENSO Nino34 SSTA which most models are forecasting for mid-year?
03/22/2022, 1:58 pm EDT

Wetter/Cooler Pattern Change Europe/Western Russia Next Week

A pattern change is indicated next week in Europe. For 2-3 weeks Europe has been mostly mild and very dry while the Black Sea region (including Ukraine) cold and snowy. Next week, the Scandinavia index flips negative and a ferocious upper trough pushes much cooler air across the northern half of Europe coupled with an impressive storm track across U.K. and into Western Russia including Ukraine.