High Impact Weather: Colder Ukraine, East Coast of Australia Heavy Rain Continues

Black Sea discussion: GFS forecasts a quasi-stationary upper trough to drop anchor over Southwest Ukraine this week (Fig. 1). The outlook implies increasing intensity of heavy rain across Turkey with some snow possible. Farther north into Ukraine precipitation trends from mostly rain and snow mixed to mostly snow by the weekend. Precipitation across Ukraine is intermittent and not heavy. Slowly, rainfall extends northeastward into Russia’s Southern District. In the 6-10-day period the upper-level low-pressure area intensifies and remains centered over Western Ukraine (Fig. 2). Precipitation becomes all snow in Ukraine and Russia’s southern District. Cold air produced by a long wave trough over West-central Russia is entrained into the Ukraine storm system as a steady source of chilly air.

Fig. 1-2: The GFS upper air forecast for Europe/Western Russia/Black Sea region for the next 5 days and the 6-10-day period.  

Australia discussion: Historic rainfall in far southeast Australia and northeast New South Wales over the weekend (Fig. 3) is shifting southward in the 5-day forecast for the remainder of this week into the weekend (Fig. 4) and also in the 6-10-day forecast valid for next week (Fig. 5). The GFS identifies potential for up to 10 in. of additional rain on the New South Wales Coast over the next 10 days. Extended-range forecasts remain wet for East Australia.

Fig. 3-5: The 7-day precipitation observations ending March 1 (top) and rainfall forecasts by GFS the next 5 days and the 6-10-day period (bottom).