Important 30-Day SSTA Changes

Areas Susceptible To Flash Drought During 2022 Warm Season
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Preliminary U.S. Population Weight CDD Anomaly Forecast For Months of Warm Season in 2022
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Highlight: Important regional SSTA 30-day changes.

Fig. 1-4: SSTA regions important to climate prediction and their 30-day changes.

Discussion: Regional SSTA significant to climate prediction have shown significant changes during the past 30 days. Most dramatic is the warming off the northwest coast of South America in the Nino12 SSAT region. The 30-day change is a bold +1.8C! The warming indicates a transient subsurface equatorial Kelvin Wave has reached the northwest coast of South America. The La Nina cool waters have shifted westward toward the Dateline in the equatorial East Pacific. Meanwhile, in the tropical North Atlantic trade winds have increased and waters off the West Africa coast have cooled by 0.8C during the past 30 days. The cooler trend in this region is important for initial hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic issued in a couple weeks. A common feature during summertime during the past decade is the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) south-southeast of Greenland which is redeveloping now. This feature helps shape the upper air pattern for North America and Europe during summertime. Finally, “warm blob” NEP22A in the North/Northeast Pacific Ocean is warming.