07/14/2022, 8:53 am EDT

July 22-28, 2022 Forecast is Second Hottest in U.S. of Past 20 Years

The Climate Impact Company U.S. CDD projection for the last week of July is 103 which is second hottest to 105 CDD observed in 2016 (using NOAA CDD data). The last week of July in 2011 is a close 3rd hottest from the last 20 years and along with 2016 and the 2022 projection the only last week of July to produce over 100 CDD.
07/13/2022, 12:19 pm EDT

GFS ENS Warm Forecast Bias in the West U.S.

An extraordinary difference in temperature bias shown in 15-day forecasts from the past 30 days appears when comparing ECM ENS vs. GFS ENS. The ECM ENS is reasonable with patchy relatively small temperature bias slightly favoring the warm side. However, the GFS ENS is boldly too warm across the Southwest and Interior West U.S.
07/12/2022, 10:51 am EDT

Squall Line/High Wind Washington, DC to Possibly New York City Later Today

NOAA/SPC has raised the probability of damaging wind gusts in the Washington to Philadelphia stretch possibly reaching the NYC area for an incoming squall line forecast over this region by late this afternoon.
07/12/2022, 8:01 am EDT

Flash Drought Central U.S. Ahead

Large regions of deep-layer soil moisture deficits are caused by long-term (usually 9 months or more) precipitation shortages. In the U.S. and generally east of the Continental Divide, presence of large areas of deep-layer soil moisture deficits can foreshadow flash drought risk areas.