North Atlantic Basin Starting to Warm

Highlight: Tropical wave in the east-central tropics not expected to develop.

Fig. 1: Morning satellite view across the North Atlantic basin.

Discussion: The North Atlantic basin contains one tropical wave in the east-central tropics (Fig. 1). There is an upper-level easterly shear axis through this feature. The tropical wave is disorganized and forecast models do not develop this system. Otherwise, forecast models are ALL CLEAR through the next 10 days. The upper-level wind shear axis maintains presence of a tropical upper troposphere trough (TUTT) stretching from the northern Yucatan Peninsula to Cuba.

The North Atlantic basin is steadily warming (Fig. 2). However, there are regions with robust warming and cooling that lead to the warm anomaly. Off the U.S. East Coast and eastward to east and northeast of Bermuda the ocean surface is very warm and warming. In the eastern subtropics waters are somewhat cooler than normal (and cooling). The waters off the West Africa (tropical) coast is warming while the western tropical North Atlantic basin remains near normal. The Gulf of Mexico is steadily warmer than normal.

Fig. 2: North Atlantic basin daily SSTA analysis and annotated remarks identifying SSTA trend.