Southern U.S. Drought Erasure; Mild Winter Outlooks Using New NOAA Long-lead Probabilistic Climate Outlooks

Climate Impact Company Daily Feature

Issued: Thursday October 15, 2026

Highlight: Southern U.S. drought erasure; Mild winter outlooks. Latest NOAA long-lead probabilistic climate outlooks versus Climate Impact Company.

Fig. 1: NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates significant improvement or reassure of drought across the Southern U.S.

Discussion: The NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates strengthening drought Interior Northwest while the 2026 severe drought extending from the Great Basin and Southwest U.S. to the Mid-south and Southeast States is (mostly) erased (Fig. 1). The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability outlook for November emphasizes anomalous warmth risk for the Northern U.S. and wetter than normal risk for the Southern States (Fig. 2-3). The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) outlook is cooler Northeast and not as wet Southwest U.S. (Fig. 4-5). The meteorological winter probabilistic forecast from NOAA/CPC indicates warmer than normal risk for most of the U.S. except the South-central region (Fig. 6) while the precipitation outlook maintains wet risk for the Southern States (Fig. 7). The CIC-CA outlook is wetter on the West Coast and milder in the Mid-south States (Fig. 8-9).

Fig. 2-5: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probabilistic forecast for November 2026 compared to the Climate Impact Company constructed analog outlook.

Fig. 6-9: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probabilistic forecast for DEC/JAN/FEB 2026-27 compared to the Climate Impact Company constructed analog outlook.