Earlier this month, record warm temperatures dominated parts of Antarctic located due south of the southern tip of Argentina. Esperanza Base located on the northern tip of the Trinity Peninsula observed a winter record 15.4C on June 6th. Other research stations observed similar record warmth and for nearly 3 straight weeks, daily maximum temperatures in this region stayed above 32F causing extreme melting leaving the mountain bases of the Collins Glacier with bare ground. However, the real meteorological story across Antarctica is not the record warmth due south of Argentina, but the ferocious cold resting on the remainder of the continent.

Emergence of the strong El Nino climate is seen in the evolution of strong positive phase global atmospheric angular momentum (+GLAAM) by late JUN/early JUL. +GLAAM is characteristic of a strong El Nino climate as westerlies aloft in the middle latitudes increase due to the interaction between increasing El Nino convection in the deep tropics and the dynamic forcing on mid-latitude upper airflow. The global wind oscillation (GWO) forecast indicates most of the forcing is in the eastern hemisphere (phase_5, phase_6, and phase_7).

The NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook based on the 90-day long-lead climate forecast indicates the Southwest U.S. Drought eases while drought over the Northwest and Western Great Plains expands adding the Coastal Northwest, Upper Midwest, and Interior Texas. Mid-Atlantic States maintain their drought while New England and Florida drought conditions will erode.

Positive phase of the East Atlantic/Western Russia (+EAWR) index is present when an amplified upper-level high pressure ridge emerges over Europe compensated for by a downstream upper trough near the Caspian Sea while a deep trough resides over the North Atlantic and a second high pressure area forms over Northeast China. Another related trough forms over the Midwest U.S. during the +EAWR regime.