New NOAA Long-lead Climate Forecasts Including Seasonal Drought Outlook

Climate Impact Company Daily Feature

Issued: Thursday, June 18, 2026

Highlight: New NOAA/CPC long-lead climate forecasts…Southwest U.S. drought fade, strengthening drought Northwest, Northern Plains, and Texas.

Fig. 1: The NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook valid through September 2026.

Discussion: The NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook based on the 90-day long-lead climate forecast indicates the Southwest U.S. Drought eases while drought over the Northwest and Western Great Plains expands adding the Coastal Northwest, Upper Midwest, and Interior Texas (Fig. 1). Mid-Atlantic States maintain their drought while New England and Florida drought conditions will erode. The July 2026 climate outlook favors anomalous heat on each coast plus the Gulf States (Fig. 2) while the Southwest U.S. and Great Basin plus the Ohio Valley are wetter than normal (Fig. 3). After the excessive rains caused by Arthur, the northwestern Gulf States shift dry during July. The seasonal outlook is cool in the Midwest while elsewhere anomalous warmth is likely (Fig. 4) while Texas dryness expands and the Southwest U.S. rains continue (Fig. 5). A wet regime is forecast for New England.

Fig. 2-3: The NOAA temperature and precipitation probability forecast for July 2026.

Fig. 4-5: The NOAA temperature and precipitation probability forecast for JUL/AUG/SEP 2026.