Record Strength El Nino Ahead for Later 2026!

July 2026 Climate Impact Company ENSO Outlook

Issued: Thursday July 16, 2026

Highlight: Record strength El Nino ahead for later 2026!

Fig. 1: Multivariate ENSO index comparison between 2026 and the 1997 and 2015 El Nino episodes.

Climate discussion: During MAY/JUN-26 multivariate ENSO index (MEI) jumped from to +1.5 (from +0.3 the previous month), the second largest one-month increase on record. The observation identifies arrival of a full-throttle strong El Nino climate. The previous sharpest (MEI) one-month rise was observed at the same time of year in 1997, which was followed by the strongest El Nino on record (Fig. 1). The most recent strong El Nino observed in 2015 was almost as strong as 1997. The southern oscillation index (SOI) has shifted to steep negative values during June (Fig. 2) indicating the El Nino climate intensity is accelerating rapidly. Implied is +MEI will equal or surpass the mid-year 1997 and 2015 values. The upper ocean heat east of the Dateline matches 1997 for this time of year (Fig. 3) identifying the immense potential energy the 2026 El Nino contains and likely explosive intensification in the coming months. Relative Nino34 SSTA forecasts using the NOAA CFS V2, ECMWF, and POAMA outlooks each indicate a record strength El Nino for later this year easily surpassing the R-N34 SSTA of +2.41 observed in November 2015 (Fig. 4).

Fig. 2: Intense negative southern oscillation index observed each day in July (so far) indicates the El Nino climate is intensifying rapidly.

Fig. 3: Monthly upper ocean heat index east of the Dateline for the first 6 months of the year for the 2026, 2015, and 1997 El Nino events.

Fig. 4: The CFS V2, ECMWF, and POAMA Nino34 SSTA forecasts identifying record strength El Nino ahead.